大越期货油脂早报-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats, with a major risk point being the El Niño weather [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production reduction falling short of expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and as the production season approaches, the supply of palm oil will increase [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,508, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the future [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,516, with a basis of 34, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have changed to short positions [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,250 - 9,650 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the future [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,166, with a basis of 113, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4] Recent利多利空 Analysis - 利多 Factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and there is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - 利空 Factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]