大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent supply has returned, and with some major suppliers selling goods, the spot market liquidity is fair. The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the spot basis is gradually declining. PTA spot prices mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream equipment and terminal demand [5]. - For MEG, the price center has fluctuated and declined at a high level. The near - term supply - demand remains tight, and the basis during the delivery period still has some support. However, with the advancement of new device production, the supply - demand in the far - month will turn loose, and the disk performance will be under pressure. Future device changes should be monitored [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 PTA - Fundamentals: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak. The September goods were negotiated at a discount of 75 - 85 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4590 - 4635. The mid - October goods were traded at 01 - 60. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 80 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4612, and the 01 contract basis is - 76, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a bearish signal [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.84 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [5]. - Main positions: The net short position is decreasing, still showing a bearish signal [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price center fluctuated and declined at a high level. The night - session ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, but the buying interest was limited. During the day, the ethylene glycol disk opened flat and then declined. The overall intention of traders to hold goods was weak, and the afternoon spot basis weakened to a premium of about 80 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In US dollars, the external market price of ethylene glycol corrected downward at a high level [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4382, and the 01 contract basis is 110, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a bullish signal [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 37.24 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons compared to the previous period, indicating a bullish signal [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [7]. - Main positions: The net short position is increasing, showing a bearish signal [6]. 3.今日关注 - Likely positive factors: The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [10]. - Likely negative factors: The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9]. - Main logic and risk points: In the short term, the commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the disk rebounds [9]. 4.基本面数据 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity has gradually increased. The supply - demand gap has fluctuated, with some months showing a supply surplus and others a supply shortage [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of ethylene glycol have changed, and the supply - demand gap has also fluctuated. The port inventory has also shown corresponding changes [12]. Other Data Analysis - Price: Multiple price - related charts of PTA, MEG, and PET bottle - chip are provided, including spot prices, production margins, basis, and inter - month spreads, showing the price trends from 2020 to 2025 [14][17][21][24][28][31][35][38]. - Inventory: Inventory - related charts of PTA, MEG, PET bottle - chip, and polyester products are presented, including factory inventory and port inventory, showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [40][42][45][46][49]. - Operating Rate: Operating - rate - related charts of polyester upstream and downstream industries are provided, including the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, showing the operating rate trends from 2020 to 2025 [51][55]. - Profit: Profit - related charts of PTA, MEG, and polyester products are provided, including production margins of different production methods, showing the profit trends from 2022 to 2025 [60][61][64].