大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250917

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the LLDPE and PP markets. For both, the expected trend for the day is an oscillating one. The main influencing factors include geopolitical unrest in the crude - oil market, the approach of the demand peak season, and relatively weak year - on - year demand [4][7]. - The main logic behind the market movements is cost - demand factors and the push from domestic macro - policies [6][9]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Crude - oil prices are oscillating due to geopolitical unrest. The demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season but is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films is picking up. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7230 (+50), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 4, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.1%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 545,000 tons (+35,000), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - Likely Factors: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, year - on - year demand remains weak [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in August, the official and Caixin PMIs improved. Crude - oil prices are oscillating due to geopolitical unrest. The downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is increasing. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6850 (- 0), with overall neutral fundamentals [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 120, and the premium - discount ratio is - 1.7%, which is bearish [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 575,000 tons (- 8,000), which is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, which is bearish [7]. - Likely Factors: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, year - on - year demand remains weak [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 7230 (+50), the price of the 01 contract is 7234 (+2), the basis is - 4 (+48), the warehouse receipt is 12,736 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 545,000 tons (unchanged), and the PE social inventory is 547,000 tons (- 14,000) [10]. - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6850 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 6970 (+4), the basis is - 120 (- 4), the warehouse receipt is 13,706 (unchanged), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 575,000 tons (unchanged), and the PP social inventory is 295,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption have increased. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023, and the consumption growth rate has also fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].