大越期货纯碱早报-20250917

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner [2][5]. Key Points by Section 1. Daily View - Fundamental analysis shows that alkali plants have few maintenance activities, supply remains high, downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable while photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, and terminal demand is average. Soda ash factory inventory is at a historically high level, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is -114 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - National soda ash factory inventory is 179.75 million tons, a 1.35% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][35]. - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, showing a neutral signal [2]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. - Overall, soda ash fundamentals are weak, and short - term volatility is expected [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factors: The peak maintenance period is approaching this year, and production is expected to decline [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry output at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, leading to weaker demand for soda ash. The positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4]. 3. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 4. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1339 yuan/ton, a 2.37% increase from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1225 yuan/ton, a 2.08% increase from the previous value. The main basis is -114 yuan, a 5.56% increase from the previous value [6]. 5. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1225 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia - soda process is -96.30 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is -92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.29%. The weekly output of soda ash is 76.11 million tons, including 42.17 million tons of heavy soda ash, with output at a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with a total planned increase of 1570 million tons and an actual planned increase of 1030 million tons in 2025 [20]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 million tons, and the operating rate is 76.01%, showing stability [26]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has continued a significant downward trend [32]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory National soda ash factory inventory is 179.75 million tons, a 1.35% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, and growth rates in various aspects [36].