大越期货生猪期货早报-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of the domestic pig market are expected to increase this week, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and rebound, maintaining a range - bound pattern. The LH2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,400 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamental: In September, the domestic market enters the peak season for supply and demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. Supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week. Demand is boosted by the approaching school season and long holiday, which also boosts market confidence. The market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, and the pig price will maintain a range - bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the group farms' slaughter rhythm and the secondary fattening market [10]. - Basis: The national average spot price is 12,960 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is 200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10]. - Inventory: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, which is bearish [10]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [10]. - Main position: The main position is net long, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [10]. - Expectation: The supply and demand of pigs are increasing recently. The pig price is expected to bottom out and rebound, maintaining a range - bound pattern. The LH2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,000 - 13,400 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. With the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the supply and demand of pigs are increasing, and the spot price is in a range - bound pattern [12]. - The recent high - temperature weather has led to a short - term decline in pork demand. The spot price of pigs is oscillating weakly due to increased supply, but the decline space is limited due to the gradually increasing demand [12]. - The domestic pig breeding profit remains at a low level, and the short - term profit has deteriorated. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is good in the short term, and the increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price of pigs may oscillate strongly before the National Day, and the futures will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: The domestic pig consumption has entered the peak season before the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price may be limited [13]. - Bearish: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - A table shows the prices of pig futures, pig futures warrants, and the spot prices of external ternary pigs from September 8 to September 16 [14]. - There are also multiple graphs showing the trends of pig basis and spreads, spot prices of different pig specifications, supply - side indicators (such as binary sow prices, piglet prices, inventory, etc.), slaughter - end prices, slaughter profits, demand - side consumption trends, pig - grain ratios, and the historical trends of pig price increases and decreases, as well as the situations of pig storage and release [15][17][23] etc. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the document