大越期货沥青期货早报-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that refineries have reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week; the demand side shows that the current demand is lower than the historical average level; the cost side shows that the decline in asphalt processing losses and the increase in the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking, along with the rising crude oil, are expected to strengthen the short - term support. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 3389 - 3433 [8][9][10]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support; the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall decline in demand, and the increasing expected recession of the European and American economies. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In August 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 685,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. Refineries have reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure [8]. - Demand: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The rising crude oil is expected to strengthen the short - term support [9]. - Basis: On September 16th, the spot price in Shandong was 3520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 109 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; the in - factory inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. The social and in - factory inventories continued to decline, while the port inventory continued to increase [10]. - Market: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position increased [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview The report provides the latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts, weekly inventory, weekly production, and weekly construction rate of asphalt [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It shows the historical trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil prices from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions It shows the historical trend of the price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical trend of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It shows the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - Production: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49][50]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: It shows the historical trends of the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [53][55]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: It shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - Construction Rate: It shows the historical trend of the weekly construction rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: It shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64][65][66]. - Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68][69]. - In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: It shows the historical trend of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71][72]. - Import and Export Situation - Export and Import Trends: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [74][75]. - Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: It shows the historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [78][79]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - Apparent Consumption: It shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation: It shows the historical trend of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 [86][87]. - New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [88]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - Asphalt Construction Rate - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate: It shows the historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 [95][96]. - Asphalt Construction Rate by Use: It shows the historical trends of the construction rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [98][99]. - Downstream Construction Situation: It shows the historical trends of the construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [101][102][104]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, in - factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [106][107].