大越期货原油早报-20250917

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Ukrainian attacks on Russian ports and oil tankers have started to impact supply, and the EU is considering new sanctions against Russia. The API crude oil inventory draw also supports oil prices. In the short term, crude oil prices are expected to be strong. Short - term trading should be bullish in the 498 - 505 range, and long - term long positions should be held for observation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily提示 - Fundamental factors: Ukrainian attacks may lead Russia to cut production by about 300,000 barrels per day; OPEC+ will discuss member capacity; EU sanctions are postponed. Overall, it's neutral. The basis shows spot premium, which is bullish. API inventory decreased, EIA inventory increased, and Cushing inventory decreased, which is bullish. The price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. However, WTI and Brent main positions reduced long positions, which is bearish [3]. - Prediction: Short - term oil prices are strong. Short - term trading is bullish in the 498 - 505 range, and long - term long positions should be held for observation [3]. 3.2 Recent要闻 - Russian oil producers may cut production due to Ukrainian drone attacks. WTI rose nearly 1% and Brent rose 0.8% on the day [5]. - Bond traders are increasing option bets on at least one 50 - basis - point Fed rate cut in the remaining three policy meetings this year [5]. 3.3多空关注 - Bullish factors: Not clearly stated. - Bearish factors: Institutional monthly reports have a weak outlook; US trade relations with other economies are tense [6]. - Market drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflicts decrease, and trade tariff risks rise. In the long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4基本面数据 - Futures market: Brent crude rose 1.53%, WTI rose 1.93%, SC crude rose 0.84%, and Oman crude fell 0.86% [7]. - Spot market: UK Brent Dtd rose 1.40%, WTI rose 1.93%, Oman crude fell 0.69%, Shengli crude rose 0.25%, and Dubai crude fell 1.11% [9]. - API inventory: As of September 12, it decreased by 3420,000 barrels [3][10]. - EIA inventory: As of September 5, it increased by 3939,000 barrels [3][14]. 3.5持仓数据 - WTI crude: As of September 9, the main long positions decreased [3][17]. - Brent crude: As of September 9, the main long positions decreased [3][18].