大越期货豆粕早报-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The soybean market in the US is affected by weather uncertainties in the production areas, South American soybean harvest, and China's import volume. The domestic soybean and bean meal markets are influenced by factors such as import volume, domestic demand, and production expectations. The short - term trend of domestic bean meal is in a volatile and relatively strong pattern, and the soybean and bean meal futures are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [8][10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No content provided on this part 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive data from the US agricultural report and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic bean meal market is in a short - term volatile and relatively strong pattern, affected by factors such as the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in August, the price correction of rapeseed meal, and the uncertain weather in the US soybean production areas. It awaits further guidance on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production areas. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in September, South American soybean harvest, and overall good planting weather for US soybeans [13] Soybean - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. - Bearish factors: Expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14] 4. Fundamental Data - The daily trading data of bean meal and rapeseed meal from September 8 to September 16 show that the trading volume of bean meal fluctuates, and the price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuates slightly. The futures and spot prices of soybeans and bean meal from September 8 to September 16 show that the futures prices of soybeans and bean meal fluctuate, and the spot prices of soybeans remain stable while the spot prices of bean meal decline slightly. The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in soybean supply and demand from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [15][17][32] 5. Position Data - No content provided on this part Bean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Bean Meal - Fundamental situation: US soybeans oscillate and rebound, while domestic bean meal oscillates and declines. It is expected to return to an oscillatory pattern in the short term. - Basis: The spot price in East China is 2950, with a basis of - 91, indicating a discount to futures. - Inventory: The oil mill's bean meal inventory is 113.62 tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease from the same period last year. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward. - Main position: The main long positions decrease, and funds flow out. - Expectation: The bean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060 [8] Soybean - Fundamental situation: US soybeans oscillate and rebound, while domestic soybeans oscillate and decline. It is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak arrival season of imported soybeans in the short term. - Basis: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 276, indicating a premium to futures. - Inventory: The oil mill's soybean inventory is 731.7 tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase from the same period last year. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward. - Main position: The main long positions decrease, and funds flow in. - Expectation: The soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3900 and 4000 [10]