大越期货PVC期货早报-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental aspect of PVC is bearish, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, high overall inventory, and potentially continued weak demand [6][12]. - The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with production likely to increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4930 - 4990 [9]. - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method has weakened, and the overall cost has declined. The production schedule may face pressure [8]. - There are positive factors such as supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. However, there are also negative factors including a rebound in overall supply pressure, persistently high inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - The fundamental aspect is bearish, the basis shows the spot price at a discount to the futures price, the inventory is high, the market trend is neutral, and the main - position holding is net short with a reduction in short positions [6][12]. - Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. Negative factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [14]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the sluggish recovery of domestic demand [15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish [7][11]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,600.05 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 0.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The production schedule may face pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. The ethylene factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. The social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.2 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [12]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides detailed data on PVC prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, and profits for different regions and production methods, including price changes, month - to - month differences, and inventory changes [17]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market 3.4.1 Basis Trend - Displays the historical trend of the PVC basis, reflecting the relationship between the spot price and the futures price [20]. 3.4.2 Price and Volume Trends - Presents the price, trading volume, and position trends of the PVC futures contract, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages [23]. 3.4.3 Spread Analysis - Analyzes the spread trends of the main PVC futures contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread [26]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - Analyzes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [29][32][34][36]. 3.5.2 PVC Supply Trends - Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance volume of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method, as well as the overall PVC production and capacity utilization rate [39][41]. 3.5.3 Demand Trends - Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, downstream operating rate, and related economic indicators of PVC, including real estate investment, construction area, and social financing scale [43][44][50][53]. 3.5.4 Inventory - Analyzes the inventory status of the exchange, calcium carbide factory, ethylene factory, and social inventory, as well as the in - stock days of production enterprises [55]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [57]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Provides the supply - demand balance data for PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, including export volume, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production volume, and import volume [60].