大越期货：甲醇早报-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand logic of methanol in China is expected to show regional trends this week, with a generally stronger north and weaker south. The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate, and the MA2601 contract is expected to trade between 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol 2601 are neutral. The supply in inland production areas is tight due to increased olefin demand, and the downstream in sales areas has pre - holiday stocking demand, but the port's ability to flow goods back to the inland restricts price increases. The port has a strong far - month expectation due to reduced imports, but high inventory restricts the spot market. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory has increased, which is also bearish. The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is below the line, which is neutral. The main position is net long with an increase in longs, which is bullish [5] 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors: Some domestic methanol plants are shut down, Iranian methanol production is affected by gas shortages and equipment shutdowns, some acetic acid plants are put into production or have production plans, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol [6] - Bearish factors: Some previously shut - down domestic plants have resumed production, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde market is in the off - season, MTBE operating rates have declined, coal - to - methanol plants have profit margins and are actively selling, and some production area plants have accumulated inventory [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price data: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2310 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis is - 65. Domestic methanol spot prices in different regions have different trends, with some rising and some falling slightly. International methanol prices such as CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia also have certain changes [5][8][9] - Inventory data: As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 126.73 million tons, an increase of 12.27 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 8.79 million tons to 89.15 million tons [5] - Operating rate data: The weighted average national operating rate of methanol plants is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also decreased to varying degrees [8] - Profit data: The profits of different methanol production processes vary. Coal - to - methanol has a profit of 335 yuan/ton, natural gas - to - methanol has a loss of 40 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - to - methanol has a profit of 513 yuan/ton [22] - Downstream product data: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained stable. The production profits and loads of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO also have different trends [33][36][39][42][47] 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic plants: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions such as Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or production reduction, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. [58] - Foreign plants: Some Iranian methanol plants are in the process of restarting or have low operating rates, and some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally [59] - Olefin plants: Some domestic olefin plants in the Northwest, East China, and other regions are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or normal operation, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, Yan'an Energy and Chemical Industry, etc. [60]