大越期货菜粕早报-20250917

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate between 2480 and 2540. It is currently in a short - term shock - strong pattern influenced by the uncertain final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The short - term trend is affected by news, and the market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2480 - 2540 range. The fundamentals are neutral due to rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations and technical consolidation. The basis is bullish as the spot price is 2580 with a basis of 62, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory is bullish as it decreased by 28% week - on - week to 1.8 tons and 25% year - on - year. The price is bearish as it is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is down. The main position is bearish as the main short positions decreased and funds flowed out [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed, but the final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed, and the low inventory pressure of oil mills. Bearish factors are the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 8th to 16th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2580 - 2620, and the trading volume was relatively small. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was relatively stable during this period, while the futures price fluctuated and declined, resulting in a slight expansion of the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed was at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume fluctuated slightly. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][22]. 5. Position Data - Not explicitly summarized in the given content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal is expected to be in a short - term shock - strong pattern, and attention should be paid to the development of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9].