Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has weakened. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 8780 - 9050 yuan/ton [6][8] - For polysilicon, the short - term supply scheduling will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium - term. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 52675 - 54665 yuan/ton [10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6] - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish [6] - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3237 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6] - Other factors: On September 16th, the basis of the 11 - contract was 185 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [8] Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The September production schedule is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10] - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and inventory decreased by 1.78%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The September production schedule is 57.53GW, a 2.73% increase from the previous month. Battery cell and component production also show different trends of change [10] - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,380 yuan/ton [10] - Other factors: On September 16th, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 1170 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Weekly inventory increased by 3.79% and is at a low level in the same period of history. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net long, and long positions decreased [10] 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase compared to the previous day. Spot prices of different grades of silicon also increased slightly [17] - Inventory: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased [17] - Production: The weekly output of sample enterprises increased by 4.66% [17] Polysilicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase compared to the previous day. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable [19] - Inventory: The weekly inventory of silicon wafers decreased by 1.78%, and the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cells decreased by 40.85% [19] - Production: The weekly output of silicon wafers increased by 5.74%, and the monthly output of photovoltaic cells increased by 0.14% [19] 3. Price and Inventory Trends - Industrial silicon: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, and cost trends are presented through multiple charts [21][27][28][36] - Polysilicon: The disk price trend, price - basis trend, and inventory trend are presented through multiple charts [24][25][65] 4. Supply - Demand Balance - Industrial silicon: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the changes in production, import, export, consumption, and balance [38][41] - Polysilicon: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the changes in supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [67] 5. Downstream Trends Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged, the profit - cost trend and weekly output trend are presented through charts [45] - Other products: The price trends of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 are presented through charts [47][48] Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: The price trends of waste aluminum recycling, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap imports, and the import cost - profit trend of ADC12 are presented through charts [55] - Inventory and production: The monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly opening rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory trend of aluminum alloy ingots are presented through charts [58] - Demand: The monthly production and sales of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheels are presented through charts [59] Polysilicon - Cost and price: The cost and price trends of polysilicon are presented through charts [65] - Inventory: The total inventory trend of polysilicon is presented through charts [65] - Silicon wafers: The relevant trends of silicon wafers are presented through charts, but specific content is not detailed in the text [70]
工业硅期货早报-20250917
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-17 05:57