原油成品油早报-20250917

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices closed higher, and the absolute price fluctuations intensified due to geopolitical news. The US proposed extensive sanctions on Russian energy, urging G7 allies to impose a 100% tariff on the purchase of Russian oil. Fundamentally, the global oil market is building inventories, with US EIA commercial crude oil and refined products inventories increasing, and global refinery profits declining. In the base case, the crude oil balance will have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years, and the fundamental situation will turn to the off - season. The medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. The absolute price center in Q4 is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of US sanctions on Russia and its potential to disrupt Russian supply [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - On the 16th, Russia reported multi - directional attacks on the Ukrainian army, while Ukraine reported an attack on a Russian refinery [3]. - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending September 12 was - 3.42 million barrels, better than the expected - 1.565 million barrels and a decrease from the previous value of 1.25 million barrels [4]. - Transneft denied reports of restricting oil intake from producers, calling them "false news" [4]. - Transneft issued a production cut warning as its system's oil storage capacity is limited due to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ports and refineries [4]. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of September 5, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.139 million barrels per day to 2.745 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 72,000 barrels to 13.495 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels (a 0.94% increase), the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.888 million barrels per day (a 1.97% increase year - on - year), the SPR inventory increased by 514,000 barrels to 405.2 million barrels (a 0.13% increase), and crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 471,000 barrels per day to 6.271 million barrels per day [4]. - From September 5 - 11, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic production of gasoline and diesel increased, and inventories of both also increased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries weakened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased [4]. Weekly Viewpoints - The oil price closed higher this week, with intensified absolute price fluctuations due to geopolitical news. The US proposed sanctions on Russian energy, and the global oil market is building inventories. The crude oil balance is expected to be in surplus in Q4 2025 and 2026. The refinery maintenance in October is expected to exceed previous years, and the fundamental situation will turn to the off - season. The absolute price center in Q4 is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel, and attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions on Russian and Iranian supply [5].