广发期货-《黑色》日报-20250917

1. Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The steel market is currently influenced by weak steel demand and expectations of a contraction in coal supply. The seasonal recovery of apparent demand in the later period will lead to a convergence of the supply - demand gap and a moderate inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is not expected to exceed the current production level, and the demand outlook remains weak. Supported by the high - level production of steel mills from September to October and the supply - side expectations of coal, raw material prices are resilient, which supports steel prices. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking, prices are expected to repair upwards, and short - term long positions can be attempted. Pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. The upper pressure levels for rebar are around 3350 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coils around 3500 yuan/ton [1]. Summary of Related Contents Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot in the South China region increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 36 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices changed, with steel billet prices increasing by 20 yuan/ton. The cost of steel production fluctuated, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, while the profit of rebar in the South China region increased by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 5.1% to 240.6 tons, and the production of the five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 857.2 tons. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 0.9% to 1514.6 tons [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.0%, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 1.9%. However, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.0%, while that for hot - rolled coils increased by 6.8% [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile upward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipping volume rebounded significantly, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, after the end of major events, the pig iron output rebounded significantly last week, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient in the peak season. The raw materials were stronger than the finished products. In terms of inventory, the port inventory increased slightly, the port clearance volume increased month - on - month, and the inventory of imported ores of 247 steel mills increased month - on - month. Looking ahead, due to the still high profitability of steel mills, the pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year supports iron ore prices. The iron ore market is currently in a tight - balanced pattern. It is recommended to take a long position on the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices and engage in arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary of Related Contents Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties increased, while the 01 contract basis of various varieties decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 11.4%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.1% [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 3.5%, and the global shipping volume increased by 29.6%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1%, and the port clearance volume increased by 4.2%. The monthly production of pig iron and crude steel decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3%, the inventory of imported ores of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6%, and the available days of inventory of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% [4]. 3. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View As of the previous day's close, the coke and coking coal futures showed a strong rebound. For coke, the second - round price cut by steel mills on the spot market has been implemented, but the third - round price cut is difficult. The supply side has resumed production rapidly, and the demand side is still supported by the rebound of iron - making water. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. For coking coal, the spot auction price is stable with a weak trend, and the downstream purchase intention has recovered. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing. It is recommended to take a long position on the coke 2601 contract at low prices (range reference: 1650 - 1800), take a long position on the coking coal 2601 contract at low prices (range reference: 1070 - 1300), and engage in arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke, while paying attention to risks due to large market fluctuations [6]. Summary of Related Contents Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices increased, with the 01 contract of coke increasing by 2.8% and the 01 contract of coking coal increasing by 4.5%. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed [6]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1%. The iron - making water output increased, and the demand for coke and coking coal was supported [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.2%, and the coking coal inventory of different sectors changed, with some sectors de - stocking and some sectors slightly increasing inventory [6].