Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports 粕类产业 - Domestic two - meal decline space is limited, and the cost support expectation of meal products in the fourth quarter is still strong. It is expected that 01 will operate in the range of 3000 - 3100 [1]. 生猪产业 - The slaughter volume of the breeding end has increased, and the spot pressure has been continuously realized. The short - term rebound of the futures price does not rule out the possibility of subsequent decline, and it is expected that the futures and spot prices will continue to bottom out [3]. 油脂 industry - Palm oil futures are expected to gradually rise to around 4500 ringgit and maintain a strong consolidation. Domestic palm oil futures are expected to follow the upward trend. For soybean oil, the supply in the United States supports the market, and the domestic soybean oil inventory has increased. The spot basis quotation may rise with the reduction of soybean supply [7]. 玉米 industry - In the short term, the market supply and demand are loose, and the futures price fluctuates weakly; in the medium term, it maintains a weak situation, and short - selling should be cautious [8]. 白糖 industry - The raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic spot pressure still exists. The futures price is expected to stabilize around 5500 in the short term, but the rebound space is limited, and the idea of selling high is still maintained later [12]. cotton industry - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long term [14]. egg industry - The demand may drive up the egg price to the annual high, but the supply side may suppress the increase. After the replenishment of traders ends next week, the egg price in some areas may decline slightly [18]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 粕类产业 - 豆粕: The current price in Jiangsu is 3030 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2601 is 3041 yuan, down 1 yuan; the basis is - 11 yuan, up 1 yuan; the spot basis in Jiangsu is m2601 - 90; the Brazilian 11 - month shipping schedule's disk import profit is 7 yuan, up 13 yuan [1]. - 菜粕: The current price in Jiangsu is 2620 yuan, up 20 yuan; the futures price of RM2601 is 2518 yuan, up 14 yuan; the basis is 102 yuan, up 6 yuan; the Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's disk import profit is 866 yuan, up 103 yuan [1]. - Soybean: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3980 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 3924 yuan, down 15 yuan; the basis is 56 yuan, up 15 yuan; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3900 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract is 3729 yuan, up 1 yuan; the basis is 171 yuan, down 1 yuan [1]. - Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 239 yuan, up 1 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 121 yuan, up 10 yuan; the spot oil - meal ratio is 2.86, up 0.017; the main contract oil - meal ratio is 2.77, up 0.015; the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread is 410 yuan, down 20 yuan; the 2601 spread is 523 yuan, down 15 yuan [1]. 生猪 industry - Futures indicators: The main contract basis is - 550 yuan, down 105 yuan; the price of live - hog 2511 is 13160 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the price of live - hog 2601 is 13680 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 11 - 1 spread is - 520 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract position is 84857, up 3795 [3]. - Spot prices: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hebei have all decreased to varying degrees [3]. - Spot indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 149204, up 1122; the weekly white - strip price is 20.10 yuan, unchanged; the weekly piglet price is 26.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price is 32.51 yuan, unchanged; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.32 kg, up 0.1 kg; the weekly self - breeding profit is 17 yuan/head, down 35.8 yuan; the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit is - 162 yuan, down 35.7 yuan; the monthly fertile sow inventory is 40420000 heads, down 10000 heads [3]. 油脂 industry - Soybean oil: The futures price of Y2601 is 8122 yuan, up 46 yuan; the basis is 238 yuan, up 4 yuan; the spot basis in Jiangsu in September is 01 + 210; the warehouse receipt is 24544, unchanged [7]. - Palm oil: The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9400 yuan, up 80 yuan; the futures price of P2601 is 9252 yuan, up 78 yuan; the basis is 148 yuan, up 2 yuan; the spot basis in Guangdong in September is 01 + 20; the disk import cost in Guangzhou Port in September is 9679.8 yuan, up 39.2 yuan; the disk import profit is - 428 yuan, up 39 yuan; the warehouse receipt is 1570, unchanged [7]. - Rapeseed oil: The current price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10060 yuan, up 120 yuan; the futures price of Ol601 is 9586 yuan, up 75 yuan; the basis is 474 yuan, up 45 yuan; the spot basis in Jiangsu in September is 01 + 200; the warehouse receipt is 8202, unchanged [7]. - Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil is 296 yuan, down 4 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil is 230 yuan, down 18 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil is 467 yuan, up 78 yuan; the spot soybean - palm oil spread is - 740 yuan, down 30 yuan; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread is - 1064 yuan, down 18 yuan; the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1400 yuan, up 70 yuan; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1635 yuan, up 111 yuan [7]. 玉米 industry - Corn: The price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price is 2166 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the basis is 144 yuan, up 1 yuan; the 11 - 3 spread is - 2 yuan, up 3 yuan; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the north - south trade profit is 39 yuan, unchanged; the CIF price is 1941 yuan, down 2 yuan; the import profit is 479 yuan, up 2 yuan; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning is 1003, up 379; the position is 1573720, up 2703; the warehouse receipt is 43975, up 232 [8]. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2511 is 2443 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Changchun is 2560 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang is 2800 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 117 yuan, unchanged; the 11 - 3 spread is - 32 yuan, up 10 yuan; the starch - corn futures spread is 277 yuan, up 1 yuan; the Shandong starch profit is - 33 yuan, up 3 yuan; the position is 335166, up 8120; the warehouse receipt is 9217, down 21 [8]. 白糖 industry - Futures market: The price of sugar 2601 is 5547 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the price of sugar 2605 is 5525 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the ICE raw sugar main contract is 15.88 cents/pound, down 0.08 cents; the 1 - 5 spread is 23 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 385623, up 4016; the warehouse receipt is 11268, down 57; the effective forecast is 0, unchanged [12]. - Spot market: The price in Nanning is 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Kunming is 5865 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Nanning basis is 366 yuan, up 2 yuan; the Kunming basis is 341 yuan, up 12 yuan; the imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4418 yuan, up 20 yuan; the imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) is 5611 yuan, up 26 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning is - 1472 yuan, up 20 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) and Nanning is - 279 yuan, up 26 yuan [12]. - Industry situation: The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales is 1000.00 million tons, up 114.00 million tons; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 646.50 million tons, up 28.36 million tons; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi is 26.02 million tons, down 9.69 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales rate is 89.60%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi is 89.04%, up 0.62%; the national industrial inventory is 116.00 million tons, up 5.78 million tons; the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi is 70.87 million tons, down 1.61 million tons; the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan is 33.65 million tons, up 7.07 million tons; the sugar import is 13.00 million tons, up 8.00 million tons [12]. cotton industry - Futures market: The price of cotton 2605 is 13860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of cotton 2601 is 13882 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the ICE US cotton main contract is 67.67 cents/pound, up 0.85 cents; the 5 - 1 spread is - 35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 492631, down 5664; the warehouse receipt is 4759, down 140; the effective forecast is 12, up 10 [14]. - Spot market: The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton is 15214 yuan, up 47 yuan; the CC Index 3128B is 15300 yuan, up 51 yuan; the FC Index M 1% is 13388 yuan/ton, unchanged; the difference between 3128B and the 01 contract is 1354 yuan, up 37 yuan; the difference between 3128B and the 05 contract is 1319 yuan, up 37 yuan; the difference between CC Index 3128B and FC Index M 1% is 1912 yuan, up 51 yuan [14]. - Industry situation: The industrial inventory is 148.17 million tons, down 33.85 million tons; the industrial inventory is 89.23 million tons, down 3.19 million tons; the import volume is 5.00 million tons, up 2.00 million tons; the bonded area inventory is 29.10 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the year - on - year inventory of the textile industry is - 0.20%, down 1.00%; the yarn inventory days is 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days is 33.87 days, down 1.31 days; the cotton outbound shipping volume is 53.46 million tons, up 9.86 million tons; the immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises C32s is - 2055.00 yuan/ton, down 36.10 yuan; the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles is 1045.00 billion yuan, up 83.70 billion yuan; the year - on - year monthly retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles is 3.10%, up 1.30%; the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 123.93 billion US dollars, up 7.89 billion US dollars; the year - on - year monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 1.43%, up 0.91%; the export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 141.46 billion US dollars, down 10.16 billion US dollars; the year - on - year export value of clothing and clothing accessories is - 10.08%, down 9.47% [14]. egg industry - Futures indicators: The price of the egg 11 contract is 3113 yuan/500KG, down 30 yuan; the price of the egg 10 contract is 3090 yuan/500KG, down 36 yuan; the 11 - 10 spread is 23 yuan, up 6 yuan [17]. - Spot indicators: The egg - producing area price is 3.76 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; the basis is 130 yuan/500KG, up 130 yuan; the egg - chick price is 2.60 yuan/feather, down 0.40 yuan; the culled - hen price is 4.61 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan; the egg - feed ratio is 2.50, up 0.07; the breeding profit is - 17.89 yuan/feather, up 4.71 yuan [17].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20250917
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-17 06:40