大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [8][11]. - The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,840 - 74,520 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake sources and insufficient willingness to purchase in the power battery sector [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises increased by 0.72% week - on - week to 95,442 tons, while the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises decreased by 0.65% week - on - week to 17,529 tons. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,067 yuan/ton, a 0.40% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 3,280 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 77,345 yuan/ton, a 1.21% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 7,539 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - Basis: On September 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 330 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 36,213 tons, a 8.26% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 58,279 tons, a 5.56% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 44,020 tons, a 3.06% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory was 138,512 tons, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - Market: The MA20 of the market is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [8]. - Main Positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [8]. - Expectations: In August 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a 1.75% month - on - month increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a 14.71% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Prices: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have shown different degrees of increase or remained stable compared to the previous values [14]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate production, production costs, and production volumes have changed to varying degrees. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96% month - on - month to 264,720 tons [17]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly production, export volume, and inventory of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials have also changed. For example, the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises increased by 0.72% week - on - week to 95,442 tons [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time, and the production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China has changed year - by - year [24]. - Import and Self - sufficiency Rate: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends for lithium spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica [24]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has changed over the years [24]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Ore - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand of domestic lithium ore have been in a state of imbalance in different months from 2024 to 2025, with demand often exceeding production and import, resulting in a negative balance in many months [26]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: The weekly and monthly production, operating rate, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time [29]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed, and the recycling volume of waste lithium batteries has also been presented [29][33]. 3.6 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate have been unbalanced in different months from 2024 to 2025. There were shortages in some months and surpluses in others [36]. 3.7 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, and production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) have changed over time. The export volume of lithium hydroxide has also been presented [39]. 3.8 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand of lithium hydroxide have been unbalanced in different months from 2024 to 2025, with both shortages and surpluses occurring [42]. 3.9 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate have changed over time. The purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the carbonation profit of lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate, and other related profits have also been presented [45][47][50]. 3.10 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including weekly and monthly inventory by source (downstream, smelter), has changed over time [52]. 3.11 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price and Production: The price of batteries, monthly production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time [56]. - Inventory and Tender: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the tender volume of energy storage projects have also been presented [58]. 3.12 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, Cost, and Production: The price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, and production of ternary precursors have changed over time [61]. - Supply and Demand Balance: The supply and demand of ternary precursors have been unbalanced in different months from 2024 to 2025, with both shortages and surpluses occurring [64]. 3.13 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, Cost, and Production: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, capacity, and production of ternary materials have changed over time. The import and export volume and inventory of ternary materials have also been presented [67][69]. 3.14 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, Cost, and Production: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, and production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time. The export volume and inventory of iron phosphate lithium have also been presented [71][74]. 3.15 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index of new energy vehicles have also been presented [79][83].