瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly increased, and most enterprises are expected to maintain their current production schedules this week to stock up for the "National Day" holiday and make up for previous order gaps. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,750 - 16,300 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,450 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,880 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,590 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 60 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The trading volume and net positions of the top 20 also changed to varying degrees [2]. Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market and international markets showed different trends. For example, the price of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex was 15,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Shanghai market Vietnamese 3L was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers were 1,870 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The reference prices of Thai raw rubber in the market showed different changes. The RSS3 theoretical production profit was 158.6 US dollars/ton, down 52.6 US dollars; the STR20 theoretical production profit was - 17 US dollars/ton, down 31.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, a decrease of 21,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased. The all - steel tire operating rate was 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points; the semi - steel tire operating rate was 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points. The inventory days, production volume of all - steel and semi - steel tires also changed [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying asset, as well as the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options, showed different changes. The historical 20 - day volatility was 17.14%, down 0.33 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility was 19.62%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the Southeast Asian main producing areas of natural rubber, rainfall in different regions has different impacts on rubber tapping. As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.95% compared with the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 8.32%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07%. The inventory utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly [2].