瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250917

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%–4.25%. It also warns of potential price corrections after the market fully digests the interest rate cut expectations and suggests a strategy of lightly shorting on price increases. The report recommends focusing on the price range of 800 - 850 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 835.08 yuan/gram, down 7 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9,906 yuan/kilogram, down 202 yuan [3]. - The positions of the Shanghai Gold main contract were 96,007 lots, down 8,053 lots; the positions of the Shanghai Silver main contract were 171,891 lots, down 23,613 lots [3]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 165,539 lots, down 7,305 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 119,104 lots, down 10,720 lots [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 54,126 kilograms, up 900 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1,221,428 kilograms, down 9,833 kilograms [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 834.6 yuan/gram, down 1.2 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9,926 yuan/kilogram, down 178 yuan [3]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 0.48 yuan/gram, up 5.8 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 20 yuan/kilogram, up 24 yuan [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 979.95 tons, up 3.15 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15,217.84 tons, up 64.94 tons [3]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 261,740 contracts, up 12,210 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 53,937 contracts, down 1,986 contracts [3]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [3]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.3%, down 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.02%, down 0.07% [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.42%, down 0.49%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 20.43%, down 0.48% [3]. 3.5 Industry News - The US Senate approved the nomination of Milan as a Fed governor, and Trump signed the appointment document; the US Court of Appeals ruled that Fed governor Cook could remain in office [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the market had digested a 25 - basis - point rate cut and was pricing in a 75 - basis - point rate cut by the end of the year [3]. - The US House Republicans proposed a temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown on October 1st, but it lacked healthcare policies demanded by Democrats [3]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, with real retail sales up 2.1% year - on - year; manufacturing output in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month [3]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed this week is 96.1%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 3.9% [3].