瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250917

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report [1][2] Core View - Internationally, the expiration delivery volume of the October white sugar contract on the ICE was 260,750 tons, with 200,000 tons from the UAE, 36,950 tons from India, and 5,000 tons from China. Domestically, the sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained relatively low. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales nationwide were 9.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1388 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, 0.65 percentage points faster year - on - year. The industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons. Currently, the Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling is basically over, and northern sugar mills are about to start production. With no obvious short - term positive drivers, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,529 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the main contract position was 388,194 lots, an increase of 2,571 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 10,988, a decrease of 280; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 56,232 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0 [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,418 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,376 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,611 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar was 5,556 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; in Nanning, it was 5,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; in Liuzhou, it was 5,970 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate was 89.59%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 3.744 million tons, an increase of 150,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.7966 million tons, a decrease of 46,200 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 9.78%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 9.81%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.73%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.3%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the central - southern region of Brazil, the average sugar cane yield per unit area decreased by 8% year - on - year as of August this crushing season. The ICE raw sugar futures fell on Tuesday due to concerns that India's sugar exports might exceed expectations. The most actively traded October raw sugar futures on the ICE closed down 0.10 cents, or 0.8%, at 15.90 cents per pound [2]