苹果产业日报-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term long - position entry as the main strategy [2] Core Viewpoint - In the new - season apple market, the supply of mid - ripe Fuji is increasing. The color and redness of some Fuji apples in the western region are affected by rainfall and short sunshine, but high - quality apples maintain firm prices. Shandong's Hongjiangjun apples have relatively poor quality. In the old - crop market, remaining supplies in Shandong are concentrated in some townships. Some merchants continue to source stored Fuji due to high prices of early - ripe Fuji and poor color of Hongjiangjun, with relatively stable prices. The digestion speed in the sales area is stable, and merchants' profits are limited due to high early - ripe Fuji prices. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation for the Double Festival [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 957; the main contract position is 2378 hands, a decrease of 240; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 81079 hands, a decrease of 240 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag, above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag, above 80 first - class) is 3.7 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The wholesale price of apples is 9.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 20.91 million tons, a decrease of 6.44; Shandong's apple storage capacity ratio is 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; Shaanxi's apple storage capacity ratio is 0; the monthly apple export volume is 50000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 6328.4 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1997.6 million US dollars, a decrease of 153306.5; the profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apple storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.44; the wholesale price of bananas is 5.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02; the wholesale price of watermelons is 3.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1; the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12 vehicles, an increase of 0.4; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 16 vehicles, an increase of 1; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 25.56 vehicles, an increase of 1.96 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 21.28%, an increase of 0.65; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 21.29%, an increase of 0.66 [2] Industry News - Western early - ripe Fuji is gradually ending, with the remaining supply showing quality differentiation; picking - green Fuji is waiting to color. In Shandong, the trading of Hongjiangjun apples has poor quality, and the trading of stored Fuji has slightly slowed down. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the mainstream price of early - ripe Fuji above 70 is 3.8 - 4.1 yuan/jin, etc. [2] Viewpoint Summary - New - season apples: The supply of mid - ripe Fuji is increasing, with some showing average color due to weather; high - quality prices are firm. Shandong's Hongjiangjun has poor quality. Old - crop market: Remaining supplies in Shandong are concentrated, and some merchants continue to source stored Fuji. The sales area has stable digestion, and merchants' profits are limited. Attention should be paid to the Double Festival stocking [2] Prompt Attention - There is no news today [2]