Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On September 17, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1233.0, up 0.37%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. Traders fully priced in three interest rate cuts by the Fed by the end of 2025. After the impact of administrative production cuts at the beginning of the month subsided, most mines resumed production, resulting in an increase in supply, a rebound in some coal prices, and a rise in the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for three consecutive months, and the inventory is at a neutral level. Technically, the daily K line is above the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and bullish trend [2]. - On September 17, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1734.5, up 0.46%. The spot market of coke faced a second - round price cut. China aims to rectify the chaotic low - price competition among enterprises and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. In terms of fundamentals, the pig iron output in this period was 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons. After the impact of production control by steel mills for the parade faded, the pig iron output returned to the previous level, and the coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 35 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K line is above the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and bullish trend [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1233.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1734.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan. The JM futures contract持仓量 was 976933.00 hands, down 3980.00 hands; the J futures contract持仓量 was 53118.00 hands, down 237.00 hands. The net position of the top 20 contracts of coking coal was - 120696.00 hands, down 5552.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 contracts of coke was - 4607.00 hands, up 448.00 hands. The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 80.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 129.00 yuan/ton, down 9.50 yuan. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 600.00 pieces, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 1550.00 pieces, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 991.00 yuan/ton, up 41.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 149.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1630.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 37.00 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan; the basis of the J main contract was - 14.50 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.80 tons, up 1.20 tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 304.40 tons, up 23.80 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, up 0.02%. The monthly raw coal output was 39049.70 tons, up 951.00 tons. The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4273.70 tons, up 712.70 tons. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 185.60 tons, up 15.60 tons. The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 466.35 tons, up 1.58 tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 258.31 tons, down 2.45 tons. The weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 883.54 tons, down 36.51 tons; the weekly inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 67.84 tons, up 1.33 tons [2]. National Industrial Situation - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills was 793.73 tons, down 2.03 tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 633.29 tons, up 9.58 tons. The weekly available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises were 12.81 days, down 0.28 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 11.29 days, down 0.42 days. The monthly import volume of coking coal was 962.30 tons, up 53.11 tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 0.00 tons, down 89.00 tons. The monthly output of coking coal was 4089.38 tons, up 25.00 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.92%, up 2.78%. The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was 35.00 yuan/ton, down 29.00 yuan. The monthly output of coke was 4259.70 tons, up 74.20 tons. The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.85%, up 3.47%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.20%, up 4.43%. The monthly output of crude steel was 7736.86 tons, down 228.96 tons [2]. Industry News - The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Energy Bureau ordered 15 coal mines to suspend production due to exceeding the approved production capacity by more than 10% in the first half of 2025. The US Treasury Secretary said that the Fed has been slow to respond, and the market is digesting the expectation of a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut from now to the end of the year. The US media reported that the US asked its allies to impose significant additional tariffs on China and India for importing Russian oil, but Japan refused. Trump hinted at making trade concessions during his visit to the UK. The UK government announced that US technology companies such as Microsoft and OpenAI promised to invest more than $40 billion, and the UK allegedly shelved the plan for zero - tariff on US steel [2].
瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250917
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-17 11:24