摩根大通：中国“十五五”规划的潜在上行机会：反内卷与服务消费

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the CSI 300 index until the end of 2026, driven by a shift in residents' asset allocation towards the stock market, which supports a potential increase in the price-to-earnings ratio over the next 12 months [3][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential opportunities arising from the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030), particularly focusing on the themes of anti-involution and service consumption. Anti-involution is expected to drive cyclical improvements across various industries, contributing to the overall earnings targets of the CSI 300 index by the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [1][3]. - The service consumption sector is projected to benefit from the government's goal of increasing residents' income during the new five-year plan period. Key catalysts include specific numerical indicators, such as the contribution of service consumption to China's economic growth [1][3][5]. - The report identifies healthcare, financial services, and cultural entertainment as sectors with relevant investment targets, highlighting the potential for significant growth in service consumption compared to developed markets [5][9]. Summary by Sections Anti-Involution - The report outlines an 18-24 month market outlook focused on normalizing prices and investment returns. If executed effectively, anti-involution measures could lead to substantial growth in residents' wealth through stock appreciation driven by profit, cash flow, and dividend growth [3][4]. - The anticipated changes in the "14th Five-Year Plan" may impose stricter regulations and fiscal discipline to curb local government corporatization, potentially leading to mergers and increased industry concentration [3][4]. Service Consumption - The report notes that China's service consumption still has significant growth potential, closely linked to per capita GDP and income levels. Current service consumption levels are comparable to those in the U.S. in the early 1970s, suggesting room for improvement [5][6]. - Investment targets in the service consumption sector include healthcare services, finance, and cultural entertainment, with a focus on companies that meet specific market capitalization and trading volume criteria [5][9]. Stock Selection - The report provides a selection of A-share companies involved in anti-involution measures, emphasizing those with the worst profitability as potential beneficiaries of policy support [6][10]. - A detailed analysis of selected stocks in healthcare, education, film, online gaming, and tourism sectors is included, focusing on companies with significant market capitalization and trading activity [8][10].