Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to maintain a weak oscillatory pattern in the short - term due to new season supply and low inventory, and face downward pressure in the long - term [3] - Starch prices are expected to be bearish both in the short and long - term due to high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [3] - Sugar prices are under pressure in the international market due to Brazil's high - pressure supply, and the domestic market also faces upward pressure [6] - Cotton is in a waiting state for demand verification, with limited downward space if no major macro - risks occur [9] - Egg prices are affected by supply - demand imbalance and high cold - storage inventory, and the spot price rebound is restricted [14] - Apple prices are currently stable, and the new - season production and market need further observation [15] - Hog prices are in a range - bound oscillation, with supply pressure in the short - term and policy expectations in the long - term [15] Group 3: Summaries Based on Different Products Corn - This week, 393,000 tons of imported corn were auctioned, with 124,000 tons sold. There is a plan to auction 190,000 tons tomorrow. In the short - term, new season corn is coming, so demand is weak and prices are in a weak oscillatory pattern. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under the background of increased production and lower costs [3] Starch - In September, companies reduced inventory and pressured corn prices. In the short - term, starch prices are expected to be reduced to clear inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and lower raw material costs keep the bearish view [3] Sugar - In the international market, Brazil is in the peak - pressing season, putting pressure on sugar prices. In the domestic market, imported sugar arrivals and lower processed sugar prices also create upward pressure [6] Cotton - It has entered an oscillatory phase, waiting for demand verification. If no major macro - risks occur, the April low can be seen as the long - term bottom, and the downward space is limited [9] Egg - Due to sufficient inventory in food factories and reduced procurement, the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand was weak and delayed. In September, school openings and double - festival stocking led to a price rebound, but the high cold - storage inventory restricts the rebound [14] Apple - New - season apple picking is approaching. Western regions may have increased yields, while Shandong may have a 20% reduction. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are currently stable. Attention should be paid to the final production [15] Hog - Prices are in a range - bound oscillation. There is supply pressure in September, and the market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policy expectations [15] Group 4: Data Summaries Corn/Starch | Product | Date | Changchun | Jinzhou | Weifang | Shekou | Basis | Trade Profit | Import Profit/Loss | Heilongjiang | Weifang | Basis | Processing Profit | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Corn | 2025/09/11 | 2230 | 2260 | 2270 | 2430 | 58 | 40 | 320 | - | - | - | - | | Corn | 2025/09/12 | 2230 | 2260 | 2270 | 2430 | 63 | 40 | 321 | - | - | - | - | | Corn | 2025/09/15 | 2230 | 2260 | 2264 | 2420 | 93 | 30 | 270 | - | - | - | - | | Corn | 2025/09/16 | - | 2260 | 2264 | 2420 | 94 | 30 | 295 | - | - | - | - | | Corn | 2025/09/17 | - | 2240 | 2264 | 2420 | 79 | 50 | - | - | - | - | - | | Change | - | - | -20 | 0 | 0 | -15 | 20 | - | - | - | - | - | | Starch | 2025/09/11 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2800 | 2850 | 228 | -27 | | Starch | 2025/09/12 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2800 | 2850 | 231 | -27 | | Starch | 2025/09/15 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2750 | 2850 | 262 | -27 | | Starch | 2025/09/16 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2750 | 2850 | 262 | -26 | | Starch | 2025/09/17 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2750 | 2850 | 252 | -26 | | Change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | -10 | 0 | [2] Sugar | Date | Liuzhou | Nanning | Kunming | Liuzhou Basis | Thailand | Brazil | Zhengzhou Warehouse Receipts | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/09/11 | 5970 | 5890 | 5850 | 414 | 395 | 577 | 11745 | | 2025/09/12 | 5970 | 5890 | 5855 | 430 | 400 | 581 | 11605 | | 2025/09/15 | 5970 | 5890 | 5855 | 421 | 344 | 525 | 11325 | | 2025/09/16 | 5970 | 5890 | 5865 | 423 | 376 | 557 | 11268 | | 2025/09/17 | 5970 | 5890 | 5860 | 441 | - | - | - | | Change | 0 | 0 | -5 | 18 | - | - | - | [6] Cotton/Cotton Yarn | Date | 3128 | Imported US Cotton M Grade | CotlookA(FE) | Import Profit | Warehouse Receipts + Forecast | Vietnamese Yarn | Spot | Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit | 32S Spinning Profit | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/09/11 | 14950 | 76.4 | 78.1 | 1256 | 5159 | 2.51 | 20880 | 483 | -817 | | 2025/09/12 | 14950 | 76.5 | 78.1 | 1258 | 5017 | 2.51 | 20870 | 461 | -827 | | 2025/09/15 | 15005 | 76.6 | 78.1 | 1303 | 4901 | 2.51 | 20870 | 471 | -885 | | 2025/09/16 | 15015 | - | - | - | 4771 | 2.51 | 20870 | 480 | -895 | | 2025/09/17 | 15010 | - | - | - | - | 2.51 | 20870 | 505 | -890 | | Change | -5 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 25 | 5 | [9] Egg | Date | Hebei | Liaoning | Shandong | Henan | Hubei | Basis | White - feather Broiler | Yellow - feather Broiler | Hog | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/09/11 | 3.33 | 3.27 | 3.45 | 3.50 | 3.69 | 680 | 3.40 | 3.90 | 19.93 | | 2025/09/12 | 3.44 | 3.38 | 3.45 | 3.50 | 3.80 | 571 | 3.40 | 3.90 | 19.88 | | 2025/09/15 | 3.56 | 3.49 | 3.55 | 3.60 | 4.02 | 720 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 19.88 | | 2025/09/16 | 3.67 | 3.60 | 3.65 | 3.70 | 4.13 | 651 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 19.88 | | 2025/09/17 | 3.67 | 3.60 | 3.65 | 3.70 | 4.20 | 879 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 19.73 | | Change | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 228.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.15 | [14] Apple | Date | Shandong 80 First/Second Grade | Shaanxi 70 General | National Inventory | Shandong Inventory | Shaanxi Inventory | January Basis | May Basis | October Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/09/11 | 7500.00 | - | 25.58 | 18.25 | 5.84 | -752.00 | -738.00 | -828.00 | | 2025/09/12 | 7500.00 | - | - | - | - | -829.00 | -793.00 | -938.00 | | 2025/09/15 | 7500.00 | - | - | - | - | -804.00 | -761.00 | -939.00 | | 2025/09/16 | 7500.00 | - | - | - | - | -769.00 | -723.00 | -936.00 | | 2025/09/17 | 7500.00 | - | - | - | - | -772.00 | -723.00 | -912.00 | | Change | 0.00 | - | -3.00 | 0.00 | 24.00 | - | - | - | [14][15] Hog | Date | Henan Kaifeng | Hubei Xiangyang | Shandong Linyi | Anhui Hefei | Jiangsu Nantong | Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/09/11 | 13.48 | 13.25 | 13.47 | 13.65 | 13.75 | 160 | | 2025/09/12 | 13.43 | 13.30 | 13.52 | 13.85 | 13.90 | 175 | | 2025/09/15 | 13.28 | 13.15 | 13.27 | 13.60 | 13.60 | 5 | | 2025/09/16 | 13.18 | 12.95 | 13.17 | 13.45 | 13.45 | 20 | | 2025/09/17 | 12.93 | 12.85 | 12.97 | 13.25 | 13.35 | -230 | | Change | -0.25 | -0.10 | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.10 | -250.00 | [15]
农产品早报-20250918
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-18 00:24