Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a mixed performance on September 17, with the main indexes rising, but individual stocks had a mixed trend. The export chain was active, while the consumer goods sector adjusted. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the Fed's interest rate cut had a certain impact on the market [2][3]. - The bond market sentiment improved, and the central bank's expected bond - buying supported the bond market. However, there were still uncertainties in the market, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was expected to fluctuate within a certain range [6]. - The Fed's interest rate cut of 25BP was in line with market expectations, and the precious metals market showed a correction after the market digested the news. Gold was expected to enter a high - level shock, and silver was expected to fluctuate within a certain range [7][9]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper, aluminum, and other metals had different market performances and outlooks. The supply and demand fundamentals and macro - environment affected their prices [12][19]. - In the black metal sector, steel prices were affected by coal supply expectations and demand, and iron ore prices were supported by supply - demand and inventory factors. Coke and coking coal also had their own supply - demand and price trends [40][46][52]. - In the agricultural products sector, the outlook for soybean meal and rapeseed meal was affected by US soybean export expectations, and the pig and corn markets also had their own supply - demand and price characteristics [60][63][65]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On September 17, the A - share market opened lower and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95%. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, with IF2509 and IH2509 rising 0.80% and 0.20% respectively, and IC2509 and IM2509 rising 1.26% and 1.25% respectively [2][3]. - News: The State Council Information Office introduced policies to expand service consumption, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points [3]. - Capital: The A - share trading volume increased slightly, with a total turnover of 2.38 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted 4185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1145 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to take profit on relevant option call positions after the macro - event is settled [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.31%, 0.13%, 0.10%, and 0.04% respectively [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted 4185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and the tax - payment period was approaching its end, and the capital situation was expected to ease [5][6]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to conduct range - based operations and be cautious about chasing up in the short term [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's interpretation was neutral. Gold and silver prices showed corrections, with gold closing at $3659.55 per ounce, down 0.82%, and silver closing at $41.63 per ounce, down 2.09% [7][9]. - Outlook: Gold was expected to enter a high - level shock, and it was recommended to take profit on the option straddle double - buying strategy. Silver was expected to fluctuate between $40.5 - 42.5, and it was recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options at high prices [9][10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping to Europe No relevant information provided. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of September 18, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased. The consumption was still weak [12]. - Macro: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the previous easing trading might be basically over [15]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level, and the domestic electrolytic copper production was expected to decline in September [13]. - Demand: The copper rod operating rate was weak in the peak season, and the downstream demand was suppressed [14]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased [14]. - Logic: The previous easing trading might end, and the copper price was expected to be affected by the macro - market style shift and US economic data [15]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 81500 [15]. Alumina - Spot: On September 17, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased [16]. - Supply: The domestic alumina production increased in August, and the operating capacity was expected to continue to increase slightly in September [17]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, while the warehouse receipt registration increased [17]. - Logic: The market was in a situation of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The supply - side disturbances in Guinea provided short - term support, but the overall supply was still excessive [18]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 2900 - 3200, and it was recommended to pay attention to supply - side factors [18]. Aluminum - Spot: On September 17, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased [19]. - Supply: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased in August, and the aluminum - water ratio increased [19]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate improved during the peak season [19]. - Inventory: The domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory showed a mixed trend, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [20]. - Logic: The macro - level interest rate cut had a marginal weakening effect on the aluminum price. The supply was high, and the cost support weakened. The inventory reduction was still uncertain [21]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 20600 - 21000 [21]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On September 17, the spot price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [22]. - Supply: The domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased in August, and the operating rate was expected to increase slightly in September [22]. - Demand: The terminal orders improved slightly, but the inventory was still accumulating [22][23]. - Logic: The cost was strongly supported, and the demand was expected to improve during the peak season. The price was expected to remain firm [23]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 20200 - 20600, and it was recommended to consider the arbitrage strategy [23]. Zinc - Spot: On September 17, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and the downstream orders were general [24]. - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fee was stable, and the global zinc mine production increased. The domestic refined zinc production was expected to decline in September [24]. - Demand: The primary processing industry's operating rate increased during the peak season, but the market was still in a wait - and - see mood [25]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [26]. - Logic: The domestic zinc price was suppressed by the supply expectation, while the LME zinc price was strong. The zinc price was expected to fluctuate [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 21800 - 22800 [28]. Tin - Spot: On September 17, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased slightly, and the spot market trading was cold [28]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports had different trends, and the supply was still tight [28]. - Demand: The solder operating rate increased in August, but the overall demand was still weak [29]. - Inventory: The LME inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased, and the social inventory increased [29]. - Logic: The supply was tight, and the tin price was expected to remain high and fluctuate. It was recommended to pay attention to the supply recovery [30]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 265000 - 285000 [30]. Nickel - Spot: As of September 17, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [30]. - Supply: The refined nickel production was at a high level, and the monthly production was expected to increase slightly [31]. - Demand: The demand from electroplating and stainless steel was general, while the demand from ternary materials for nickel sulfate improved [31]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory was high, the domestic social inventory increased, and the bonded area inventory decreased [31]. - Logic: The macro - environment was positive, but the supply was expected to be loose in the medium - term. The nickel price was expected to fluctuate within a range [32]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 120000 - 125000 [32]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of September 17, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased slightly [33]. - Raw materials: The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was strong, and the chromium - iron price increased [33]. - Supply: The domestic stainless steel production was expected to increase in September [34]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt decreased [34]. - Logic: The macro - environment improved, but the downstream demand in the peak season was not as expected. The price was expected to fluctuate within a range [36]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 12800 - 13400 [36]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of September 17, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, while the price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [36]. - Supply: The lithium carbonate production increased in August, and the supply was affected by previous production cuts and imports [37]. - Demand: The demand was optimistic, and the orders in September were expected to increase [37]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased, with the upstream inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [38]. - Logic: The policy was favorable, and the supply - demand was in a tight balance. The price was expected to be strong and fluctuate [39]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate around 70000 - 75000 [40]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The steel price decreased slightly, and the basis of rebar was 48 yuan [40]. - Cost and profit: The cost was affected by production restrictions, and the steel profit decreased [40][41]. - Supply: The iron element production increased in the first 8 months, and the steel production showed different trends this week [42]. - Demand: The five - major steel products' apparent demand was basically flat year - on - year, and the export growth was limited [43]. - Inventory: The five - major steel products' inventory increased, mainly due to rebar [44]. - Viewpoint: The steel price was expected to fluctuate within a range, affected by weak demand and coal supply expectations [45]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of September 17, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders were mixed [46]. - Futures: The iron ore 2601 contract rose slightly [46]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was different [47]. - Demand: The steel mill's iron - making capacity utilization rate increased, and the profit margin decreased slightly [48]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival decreased [49]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill's inventory increased [50]. - Viewpoint: The iron ore market was in a tight - balance situation, and the price was expected to be bullish. It was recommended to go long on the 2601 contract [51]. Coking Coal - Spot and futures: The coking coal futures fluctuated and fell, and the spot price showed signs of stabilization [52]. - Supply: The coal mine production increased, and the import coal price fluctuated with the futures [56]. - Demand: The iron - making and coking production increased, and the demand was supported [54]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [55]. - Viewpoint: The coking coal market was expected to rebound, and it was recommended to go long on the 2601 contract [56]. Coke - Spot and futures: The coke futures fluctuated and fell, and the second - round price cut by steel mills was implemented [57]. - Supply: The coking production increased due to previous profit increases [59]. - Demand: The steel mill's production increased, and the demand for coke was supported [58]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased slightly [59]. - Viewpoint: The coke market was expected to bottom out and rebound, and it was recommended to go long on the 2601 contract [59]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the trading volume was mixed [60]. - Fundamental news: Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts were adjusted, and the US soybean production was uncertain [61]. - Market outlook: The domestic soybean meal market was under pressure, and the support at 3000 for the 01 contract should be noted [62]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The live pig price decreased slightly [63]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased [63][64]. - Market outlook: The supply pressure was high, and the near - month contract was expected to be weak. The 1 - 5 spread arbitrage opportunity should be noted [64]. Corn - Spot price: The corn price in Northeast China was stable, while that in North China decreased [65]. - Fundamental news: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port changed, with corn inventory decreasing [66]. - Market outlook: The short - term corn market was in a loose supply - demand situation, and the price was expected to be weak. The support at 2150 should be noted [67].
广发早知道：汇总版-20250918
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-18 00:47