Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with the return of near - end TA maintenance and the increase in start - up, polyester load slightly rising, inventory remaining stable, basis being weak, and spot processing fees at a low level. As the device restarts, TA de - stocking slows down. With no unexpected performance from polyester and new production in the future, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. But the processing fee is extremely low and has lasted for a long time, and PX supply is gradually returning. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [2]. - For MEG, near - end domestic oil - based production is stable, coal - based start - up slightly increases, overall load rises, overseas maintenance and restart coexist, port inventory slightly accumulates with the increase in arrivals during the week, downstream stocking levels rise, basis weakens month - on - month, and the benefit ratio shrinks. EG new device feeding is earlier than expected, valuation is significantly compressed. With the increase in arrivals month - on - month and high supply expectations in the far - month, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the actual inventory is still not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based cost below [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - end start - up of some companies increases, production and sales improve month - on - month, and inventory slightly decreases. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material stocking decreases, and finished product inventory decreases month - on - month, with weak benefits. In the future, the speed of increasing the load of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished product inventory. With good spot benefits, the start - up of staple fiber remains high, but the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable and the absolute level is not high, and the price of Thai cup rubber remains stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Catalog PTA - Price and Index Changes: From September 11 - 17, 2025, crude oil decreased by 0.5, naphtha increased by 4, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 2, PTA inner - market spot increased by 10, POY 150D/48F decreased by 5. Naphtha cracking spread remained unchanged, PX processing spread decreased by 2, PTA processing spread remained unchanged, polyester gross profit remained unchanged, PTA balance load and PTA load remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts + valid forecasts decreased by 7889. The daily average transaction basis of PTA spot was 2601(-77) [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - end TA maintenance returns, start - up increases, polyester load slightly rises, inventory remains stable, basis is weak, and spot processing fees are at a low level. PX domestic start - up increases, overseas devices restart, PXN remains month - on - month, disproportionation benefits remain, isomerization benefits weaken, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remains stable [2]. - Outlook: As the device restarts, TA de - stocking slows down. With no unexpected performance from polyester and new production in the future, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. But the processing fee is extremely low and has lasted for a long time, and PX supply is gradually returning. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [2]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From September 11 - 17, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, MEG inner - market price decreased by 12, MEG East China price decreased by 12, MEG far - month price decreased by 5, MEG coal - based profit remained unchanged, MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) remained unchanged, MEG total load, coal - based MEG load, and non - coal - based load remained unchanged, and MEG port inventory remained unchanged. The basis of MEG spot transaction was around 01(+82) [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - end domestic oil - based production is stable, coal - based start - up slightly increases, overall load rises, overseas maintenance and restart coexist, port inventory slightly accumulates with the increase in arrivals during the week, downstream stocking levels rise, basis weakens month - on - month, and the benefit ratio shrinks [2]. - Outlook: EG new device feeding is earlier than expected, valuation is significantly compressed. With the increase in arrivals month - on - month and high supply expectations in the far - month, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the actual inventory is still not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based cost below [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From September 11 - 17, 2025, the prices of 1.4D cotton - type, low - melting - point staple fiber, etc. remained mostly unchanged. The profit of staple fiber and pure - polyester yarn remained unchanged, the difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber decreased by 5, and the difference between viscose and polyester staple fiber remained unchanged. The spot price was around 6470, and the market basis was around 10 - 40 [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - end start - up of some companies increases, production and sales improve month - on - month, and inventory slightly decreases. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material stocking decreases, and finished product inventory decreases month - on - month, with weak benefits [2]. - Outlook: In the future, the speed of increasing the load of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished product inventory. With good spot benefits, the start - up of staple fiber remains high, but the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [2]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From September 11 - 17, 2025, the prices of various rubber products changed. For example, the daily change of US - dollar Thai standard spot was - 10, the daily change of RMB mixed rubber was - 150, etc. The weekly change of some products also showed certain fluctuations. The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable and the absolute level is not high, and the price of Thai cup rubber remains stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping [2]. - Strategy: The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From September 11 - 17, 2025, the prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, etc. changed. For example, the daily change of pure benzene (East China) was - 15, the daily change of styrene (Jiangsu) was - 15. The Asian spread of pure benzene - naphtha remained unchanged on the day of September 17, and the domestic profit of EPS increased by 15, and the domestic profit of PS increased by 15 [5].
芳烃橡胶早报-20250918
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-18 00:49