LPG早报-20250918

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows complex changes. The domestic market has seen significant price increases, with the basis weakening and monthly spreads changing. The external market prices have risen, and the profit of PDH - made PP has continued to weaken. The supply and demand situation is such that imports have decreased, external sales have slightly increased, but demand has narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories. The chemical demand has declined, and the overall market is expected to remain weak [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Price Data - Domestic Prices: On September 17, 2025, the prices in different regions were as follows: the price in East China was 4482 (-17), in Shandong was 4540 (+0), and in South China was 4585 (+35). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4700 (-20). The lowest delivery location was East China [1]. - Contract - related Data: The PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 monthly spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 62 (+3). The number of warehouse receipts was 13002 hands (-6) [1]. - External Market Prices: FEI and CP were 559 (+2) and 550 (+0) US dollars/ton respectively. The FEI monthly spread remained at - 5, and the CP monthly spread remained at - 11. The external market prices rose, with the FEI - CP spread at 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. Market Spread and Margin Data - Basis and Spread: The basis weakened, and the monthly spreads showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 11 monthly spread changed by +14, and the 11 - 12 monthly spread changed by +3. The internal - external spread decreased slightly, with PG - CP at 75 (-3) and PG - FEI at 67.6 (-9.3) [1]. - Profit Margin: The profit of PDH - made PP continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low [1]. Shipping and Inventory Data - Shipping: Freight rates continued to rise, with the latest freight from the US Gulf to Japan at 155 (+11) and from the Middle East to the Far East at 82 (+7) [1]. - Inventory: Imports decreased, external sales increased slightly, but demand narrowed, resulting in an increase in both port and factory inventories [1].