集运早报-20250918

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price is still falling, but the decline is expected to slow down in October. The MSK opened the cabin for week 40 with a quote of $1400, a weekly decline of -$150, and for week 41, it also quoted $1400, remaining flat. [2] - The futures market declined significantly on Wednesday, with the bottom further breaking through. However, the market rose in the late session due to the news of the flat quote for week 41 from MSK. The basis for October was -20 points, and the spread between October and December was -562 (-58). [2] - There are multiple upward drivers in the future. For the December contract, be cautious when going long, as its valuation is neutral, and trading should be based on drivers. Since the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), the settlement price of the February 2026 contract may be higher, and in terms of valuation, the cost - effectiveness of long - allocating the February contract is higher than that of the December contract. To avoid the potential price - cutting risk of shipping companies in October, a positive spread arbitrage between the February and April 2026 contracts can be appropriately arranged. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures Contract Prices and Changes: The closing prices and changes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 futures contracts are provided, along with their basis, trading volume, open interest, and open interest changes. For example, the closing price of EC2510 was 1109.7, with a decline of -5.13%. [2] - Futures Month - to - Month Spreads: The spreads between different contract months (such as EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602) and their changes compared to previous days and weeks are presented. For instance, the spread of EC2510 - 2512 was -562.3, a decrease compared to the previous days. [2] Spot Market - Spot Price Indexes: The SCHIS SCFI (European line), CCFI, and NCFI spot price indexes are reported, including their latest values, changes compared to previous periods, and publication dates. The SCHIS SCFI (European line) was 1440.24 on September 15, 2025, with a decline of -8.06% compared to the previous period. [2] - Recent European Line Quotations: The current situation is that downstream customers are booking cabin space for the end of September and early October (week 39 - 41). The average quotation for week 39 was $1600 (equivalent to 1150 points on the disk), and the quotations for week 40 and week 41 from different shipping companies are also provided. [3] Other Information - Related News: News such as military actions in the Gaza Strip, US sanctions on armed organizations, and Iran's stance on sanctions and nuclear issues are mentioned. [4] - Index Publication Notes: It is noted that the XSI - C index is delayed by three working days. [5]