建信期货豆粕日报-20250918

Report Overview - Report Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term trend of domestic soybean meal is weak due to strong market risk - aversion sentiment and near - end spot pressure. Although the USDA's September monthly supply - demand report is slightly bearish, the market reaction is limited. With the relative stability of CBOT soybeans, the domestic soybean meal market is affected by external news. In the short term, it may have difficulty rebounding due to poor technical performance, but considering the complexity of Sino - US negotiations, the price cannot be expected to drop significantly. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Under the assumption of unchanged tariffs, the time window for long positions may be in the fourth quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: The prices of domestic soybean meal contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 declined. The main contract of US soybean futures on the outer market oscillated at 1045 cents. The USDA's September report slightly adjusted the planting area, yield per unit, and demand of soybeans, with a final ending inventory of 300 million bushels, slightly higher than the previous 290 million bushels, showing a slight bearish signal [6]. - Market Analysis: The domestic soybean meal market is weak because of strong risk - aversion sentiment and spot pressure. The news of Trump's potential visit to China and a possible purchase agreement of US goods has led to early risk - aversion by market bulls. There is currently a relative lack of positive news, and the market is easily influenced by external news. The short - term technical performance is poor, but considering the complexity of Sino - US negotiations, the price will not drop significantly. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the long - position time window may be in the fourth quarter [6]. 3.2 Industry News - USDA: The expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season in September is 4.301 billion bushels, higher than the market expectation of 4.271 billion bushels. The expected ending inventory is 300 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 288 million bushels. The expected yield per unit is 53.5 bushels per acre, higher than the market expectation of 53.3 bushels per acre. - As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, the same as the market expectation; the harvest rate was 5%, the same as the market expectation; and the defoliation rate was 41% [9][10]. - Abiove: The estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2024/25 season remains at 170.3 million tons. The estimated soybean export volume in 2025 remains at 109.5 million tons. The estimated soybean crushing volume in 2025 is adjusted up to 58.5 million tons. The estimated soybean meal production in the 2024/25 season is adjusted up to 45.1 million tons, and the estimated export volume remains at 23.6 million tons. The estimated soybean oil production in the 2024/25 season is adjusted up to 11.7 million tons, and the estimated export volume remains at 1.35 million tons [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][12][18]