建信期货国债日报-20250918

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the central bank restarting bond - buying has heated up again, causing treasury bond futures to strengthen in the afternoon and close higher across the board [8] - Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market have declined across the board, with medium - and long - term yields falling by about 2bp [9] - Amid tax - period disturbances, the central bank has returned to net investment in the open market, and the money market has tightened. Short - term interest rates have risen across the board [10] - The economic data for August shows that the domestic demand recovery foundation is still weak, and there is no strong need for the domestic monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September. Policy may focus more on fiscal and credit expansion and real - estate support, which may disrupt the bond market. However, the suppression from the stock market on the bond market may ease [11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Conditions: Treasury bond futures strengthened in the afternoon and closed higher across the board due to the rising expectation of the central bank restarting bond - buying. Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with medium - and long - term yields falling about 2bp. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield dropped 1.75bp to 1.7625% [8][9] - Money Market: Amid tax - period disturbances, the central bank conducted 4185 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with 3040 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, achieving a net investment of 1145 billion yuan. Short - term interest rates rose, while medium - and long - term funds changed little [10] - Conclusion: The economic data for August shows weak domestic demand recovery. There is no strong need for domestic monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September. Policy may focus on fiscal and credit expansion and real - estate support, which may disrupt the bond market. The suppression from the stock market on the bond market may ease. The bond market may lack a breakthrough, and short - term bonds may be more resilient [11][12] 4.2 Industry News - From September 14th to 15th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Madrid, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues such as TikTok, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [13] - On September 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in August, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive trend. From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with private fixed - asset investment down 2.3%. Real - estate development investment decreased by 12.9%. In August, social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% [14] - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. From January to August, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [15] 4.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report presents trading data of various treasury bond futures contracts on September 17th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] - Related Spreads and Trends: It also shows information such as the inter - term spreads of treasury bond futures' main contracts, inter - variety spreads (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year), and the trends of main contracts [17][19][22] - Money Market: It includes the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, and the changes in the weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank deposit - based pledged repurchase [31][35] - Derivatives Market: It shows the fixed - rate curves (mean values) of Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swaps [37]