建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250918

1. Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Quotes Summary Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7252 | 7245 | 7265 | 7238 | -15 | -0.21 | 520256 | -3780 | | Plastic 2605 | 7285 | 7289 | 7308 | 7279 | 5 | 0.07 | 38553 | 193 | | Plastic 2609 | 7315 | 7299 | 7322 | 7299 | 0 | 0.00 | 32 | 1 | | PP2601 | 6977 | 6982 | 6996 | 6970 | -10 | -0.14 | 570841 | -10461 | | PP2605 | 7005 | 7017 | 7027 | 7002 | 7 | 0.10 | 67265 | 3640 | | PP2609 | 6977 | 6984 | 6992 | 6975 | 8 | 0.11 | 1051 | 201 | [5] 3. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: Linear futures opened lower and oscillated weakly, dampening trading sentiment. Traders offered discounts, and end - users purchased as needed. [6] - Supply Side: Upstream maintenance levels exceeded expectations, with more shutdown devices. Upstream capacity utilization and production both decreased. [6] - Demand Side: The downstream agricultural film industry entered the peak season, but the operating load was still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Overall demand was not fully released. The overall operating rate of PP downstream increased, with BOPP and pipes showing a slight month - on - month increase. Demand is expected to have room for recovery. [6] - Cost Side: Due to the expected increase in crude oil supply and a weak medium - to - long - term fundamental outlook, cost support weakened. [6] - Overall Outlook: The market is in a pattern of both supply and demand recovering. Downstream enterprises are expected to replenish their stocks before the double festivals, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate warmly. [6] 4. Industry News - Inventory: On September 17, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 650,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 2.99%. The inventory at the same time last year was 810,000 tons. [7] - PE Market: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE price in North China was 7,130 - 7,450 yuan/ton, 7,210 - 7,700 yuan/ton in East China, and 7,320 - 7,750 yuan/ton in South China. [7] - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily in the range of 6,580 - 6,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Downstream factories made purchases at low prices, some production enterprises saw increased sales volume, and the willingness to support prices became more prominent. The market trading center moved up slightly, and the overall trading atmosphere was fair. [7] - PP Market: The PP market was stable with some loosening, and some prices decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6,740 - 6,860 yuan/ton, 6,750 - 6,930 yuan/ton in East China, and 6,720 - 6,920 yuan/ton in South China. [7] 5. Data Overview - The report also presented multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources mainly from Wind and Zhuochuang Information. [9][15][17]