沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250918

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The external market rebounded after a decline. There is an expectation of an interest rate cut in the US this week. The nickel ore price is firm, and Indonesia's sudden mine inspection has brought bullish sentiment to the ore end. The nickel iron price is rising steadily, and the cost line has further shifted upward. Stainless steel inventory continues to decline, with good de - stocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the loading of ternary batteries is still decreasing, with limited improvement in nickel demand. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2510 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot stainless steel price remains flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price and shipping freight are firm. Indonesia's sudden inspection and sealing of nickel mines have triggered a bullish sentiment on nickel ore. The nickel iron price is rising steadily, and the cost line is firm. Stainless steel inventory continues to decline, with good de - stocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The contract 不锈钢2511 will operate in a wide - range oscillation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - Nickel and Stainless Steel Prices: On September 17, the price of 沪镍主力 was 121,790, down 820 from the previous day; the price of 伦镍电 was 15,445, unchanged; the price of 不锈钢主力 was 12,935, down 35. Among the spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,800, down 800; 1金川 nickel was 123,900, down 800; 1 imported nickel was 122,000, down 800; nickel beans were 124,150, down 800. Cold - rolled stainless steel prices in different regions remained unchanged [11]. 3.2 Inventory - Nickel Inventory: As of September 17, LME nickel inventory was 228,468, an increase of 2,034; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 26,141, a decrease of 26. The total inventory was 254,609, an increase of 2,008 [14]. - Stainless Steel Inventory: On September 12, the inventory in Wuxi was 583,700 tons, in Foshan was 297,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,012,500 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons month - on - month. The inventory of the 300 - series was 623,700 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons month - on - month. On September 17, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 95,265, a decrease of 480 [18][19]. 3.3 Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron - Nickel Ore Price: On September 17, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. Shipping freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged [22]. - Nickel Iron Price: The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 954 yuan per nickel point, unchanged; the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3,470 yuan per ton, unchanged [22]. 3.4 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,153; the production cost using scrap steel was 13,561; the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16,848 [24]. 3.5 Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price of nickel was 124,352 yuan per ton [27]. 3.6 Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: There is an expectation of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October"; there are anti - involution policies; the cost line has support at 120,000 [6]. - Bearish Factors: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, and there are no new demand growth points, with the long - term oversupply pattern remaining unchanged; the loading volume of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [6].