焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-18）-20250918

Group 1: Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is slowly recovering but still tight, with some mines still shut down.成材 prices rose slightly, improving market sentiment. Some downstream coke enterprises replenished inventory due to low stock levels, and the auction prices of some coal types increased by 10 - 100 yuan/ton. Coal prices remained stable under downstream demand [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 1150, basis is -83, indicating spot discount to futures [2]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons from last week, including 805.8 tons in steel mills, 255.5 tons in ports, and 829.4 tons in independent coke enterprises [2]. - Market: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it [3]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, with short positions increasing [3]. - Expectation: Market sentiment has improved, and downstream procurement has increased. However, due to poor profits, enterprises remain cautious. Coking and steel enterprises mainly purchase on - demand. Short - term coking coal prices are expected to be weakly stable [2]. Coke - Fundamental: Coke enterprises' production is stable, and shipments are smooth. Some coke enterprises' inventory is increasing, but overall inventory is still low. The stable and rising coking coal prices support coke prices [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 1630, basis is -104.5, indicating spot discount to futures [7]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons from last week, including 609.8 tons in steel mills, 215.1 tons in ports, and 39.3 tons in independent coke enterprises [7]. - Market: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it [7]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, with short positions increasing [7]. - Expectation: Coke enterprises still have profit margins and high production enthusiasm, with general inventory pressure. As cost support strengthens, market sentiment is boosted. Tangshan's production restrictions reduce the expectation of price cuts by steel mills. Short - term coke prices are expected to be weakly stable [7]. Group 2: Influencing Factors Coking Coal - Bullish: Iron - water production is rising, and supply is difficult to increase [5]. - Bearish: Coking and steel enterprises are slowing down raw coal procurement, and steel prices are weak [5]. Coke - Bullish: Iron - water production and blast furnace operating rates are rising [9]. - Bearish: Steel mills' profit margins are squeezed, and some replenishment demand has been overdrawn [9]. Group 3: Price Information Coking Coal - On September 17 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some price increases [10]. Coke - On September 17 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke at different ports, including different types and origins, are provided [11]. Group 4: Inventory Information Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21]. Independent Coke Enterprises' Inventory - Coking coal inventory in independent coke enterprises is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26]. Steel Mills' Inventory - Coking coal inventory in steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [31]. Group 5: Other Information - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [44]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [48].