工业硅期货早报-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, supply was flat last week, demand decreased by 3.70%, and the market is expected to oscillate between 8,830 - 9,100. The overall situation is affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance, high inventory, and weak cost support [6][7]. - For polysilicon, production increased last week, and 9 - month production is expected to decrease slightly. Demand in the downstream sectors shows different trends, with overall demand recovering. The market is expected to oscillate between 52,530 - 54,450 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, flat compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease compared to the previous week. Demand remains sluggish [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 3,237 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [7]. - Evaluation: Fundamentals are bearish; basis is bullish; inventory is bearish; the disk is bullish; the main position is bearish [7]. - Expectation: Supply production is expected to increase, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 8,830 - 9,100 [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase compared to the previous week. The planned production for September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease compared to the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.88 GW, a 0.72% increase compared to the previous week. The inventory decreased by 1.78%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,000 yuan/ton [9]. - Evaluation: Fundamentals are neutral; basis is bearish; inventory is neutral; the disk is bullish; the main position is bullish [9]. - Expectation: Supply production is expected to decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term. Demand in the downstream sectors continues to increase, and overall demand shows a continuous recovery trend. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 52,530 - 54,450 [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices: Some contracts showed price increases, such as the 01 contract increasing by 0.48% [15]. - Spot prices: The prices of some products remained unchanged, such as the price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon remaining at 9,100 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 0.37%, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.84%, and major port inventory increased by 1.71% [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices: Some contracts showed price decreases, such as the 01 contract decreasing by 0.20% [17]. - Spot prices: The prices of some products remained unchanged, such as the price of daily N - type 182mm silicon wafers remaining at 1.33 yuan/piece [17]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory increased by 3.79%, and the inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories decreased by 40.85% [17]. 3.3 Downstream Market Analysis 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - Production: The weekly DMC production was 47,800 tons, a 3.02% increase compared to the previous week [15]. - Price: The price of DMC remained unchanged at 10,800 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 82 yuan/ton, in a loss state [15]. - Inventory: The monthly DMC inventory was 73,200 tons, a 34.81% increase compared to the previous month [15]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - Production: The monthly production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 3.13%, and the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.60% [15]. - Price: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,050 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 159 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 70,800 tons, a 22.28% increase compared to the previous week [16]. 3.3.3 Polysilicon - Production: The monthly production of polysilicon was 492 GW, a 4.45% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - Price: The price of N - type dense material was 51,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 940 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory was 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase compared to the previous week [17].