碳酸锂期货早报-20250918
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-18 02:11
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply and relatively weak demand. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch. Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72320 - 74960 [8][9][13]. - The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate has increased, resulting in losses in production. The cost of purchasing lithium mica remains unchanged, also with losses. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The cash production cost at the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Supply Side: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the output was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - Demand Side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 95,442 tons, a 0.72% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,529 tons, a 0.65% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost Side: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased week - on - week, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,311 yuan/ton, a 0.33% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 3,227 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 77,345 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 7,245 yuan/ton [9][10]. - Market Outlook: Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72320 - 74960 [9]. - Likely Positive Factors: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11]. - Likely Negative Factors: High - level supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [12]. - Main Logic: Capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - Price Changes: The prices of most lithium - related products increased slightly. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.41% to 73,150 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.42% to 70,900 yuan/ton [16]. - Supply - Side Data: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 66.41%. The monthly output of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase from the previous month. The import volume decreased by 21.77% to 13,845.31 tons [19]. - Demand - Side Data: The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96% to 264,720 tons, and the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% to 316,400 tons. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 11.81% to 62,500 GWh [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore showed a certain upward trend, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines also had corresponding changes. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased significantly by 34.73% to 576,138 tons [26]. - Supply - Demand Balance: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the domestic lithium ore market, with shortages in most months [29]. 3.4 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - Production and Capacity: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend, and the production capacity also increased. The monthly output in August 2025 was 85,240 tons [32]. - Import and Export: The import volume decreased, and the export volume was relatively small. The monthly import volume in August was 17,000 tons [32][39]. - Supply - Demand Balance: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market, with shortages in some months [39]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Capacity: The production of lithium hydroxide decreased, and the operating rate also declined. The monthly output in August 2025 was 21,820 tons, a 13.31% decrease from the previous month [19]. - Export and Import: The export volume decreased significantly, and the import volume was relatively small [42]. - Supply - Demand Balance: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium hydroxide market, with shortages in some months [45]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica was relatively high, resulting in losses in production. The cost - profit situation of different recycling materials also varied [48][50]. - Processing Cost and Profit: The processing costs of lithium mica and lithium spodumene increased, and the profit of lithium carbonate purification and other processing links also changed [48][50]. 3.7 Inventory - Carbonate Lithium Inventory: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with a 1.12% week - on - week decrease to 138,512 tons. The inventory of smelters decreased, while the inventory of downstream and other parties increased [10]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The inventory of lithium hydroxide also showed certain changes, with the monthly inventory of downstream and smelters having corresponding fluctuations [55]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Battery Price and Cost: The prices of some lithium batteries increased slightly, and the cost of battery cells also changed [59]. - Production and Sales: The monthly output and sales volume of lithium batteries increased, and the export volume also showed an upward trend [59]. - Inventory: The inventory of lithium battery cells showed different trends for different types of batteries [61]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost: The price of ternary precursors showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of the 5 - series (polycrystalline/consumer - type) ternary precursor decreased [64]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The monthly output of ternary precursors increased, and the capacity utilization rate also showed corresponding changes [64]. - Supply - Demand Balance: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the ternary precursor market, with shortages in some months [67]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of the 5 - series (polycrystalline/consumer - type) ternary material decreased [70]. - Production and Export - Import: The production of ternary materials increased, and the export and import volumes also had corresponding changes [70][72]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations [72]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of iron phosphate lithium increased [74]. - Production and Export: The monthly output of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium increased, and the export volume of iron phosphate lithium also increased significantly [74][77]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed certain fluctuations [79]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles increased. The sales volume in August 2025 was 1.262 million vehicles, a 11.91% increase from the previous month [19][82]. - Penetration Rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles continued to increase [83].