大越期货天胶早报-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber are that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is decreasing, and tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral outlook. The basis is -830 with the spot price at 15050, showing a bearish signal. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Qingdao area has different trends, overall neutral. The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, also bearish. The market is expected to have support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - Supply - Demand Factors - Bullish factors include high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - Bearish factors are increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6] - Inventory - The inventory in the exchange has decreased recently, while the inventory in the Qingdao area has changed slightly [14][17] - Import - The import volume has rebounded [20] - Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally rebounded, tire production has reached a new high in the same period, and the tire industry's exports have rebounded [23][26][29][32] Basis - The basis strengthened on September 17th [35] Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) decreased on September 17th [8]