大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250918

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 18, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to fluctuate today, with geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the agricultural film demand entering the peak season but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being moderately high [4]. - The PP market is also expected to fluctuate today, with geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, improving demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving, and moderately high industrial inventory [7]. Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - Fundamentals: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's exports in August were $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has rebounded. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7,230 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -15, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - Leverage Factors: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [5]. PP Analysis - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving is improving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6,850 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -132, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.9%, which is bearish [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000), which is neutral [7]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [7]. - Main Position: The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7]. - Leverage Factors: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [8]. Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 7,230, the price of the 01 contract is 7,245, the basis is -15, the number of warehouse receipts is 12,736, and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6,850, the price of the 01 contract is 6,982, the basis is -132, the number of warehouse receipts is 13,706, and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity and output of polyethylene have generally increased, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity and output of polypropylene have also increased, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].