大越期货豆粕早报-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean market is affected by factors such as weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas, South American soybean harvest, and Sino - US trade relations. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are influenced by import volumes, demand, and price differentials, with short - term trends showing a return to a volatile pattern [8]. - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2980 - 3040 [8]. - The soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3840 - 3940 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - There is no specific content for this part in the report. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is awaiting the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvest weather in the US soybean - producing areas [12]. - The domestic import of soybeans remains at a relatively high level in August. The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as the US soybean weather, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the rise of rapeseed meal prices, showing short - term volatility [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has recently recovered, but due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to a range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Likely Positive Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low current soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Likely Negative Factors: High total volume of imported soybeans in September, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Likely Positive Factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Likely Negative Factors: The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2920, with a basis of - 82, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 113.62 tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price in Jiamusi is 4140, with a basis of 245, indicating a premium to futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 731.7 tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase from the same period last year [8][10]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main long positions have decreased, but there is capital inflow [8]. - Soybeans: The main long positions have increased, with capital inflow [10].