大越期货2025-09-18：甲醇早报-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand logic of methanol in China is expected to show regional trends this week, with a generally stronger north and weaker south. Inland areas may see higher prices due to increased olefin demand, but the inflow of port supplies may limit price increases in the sales areas. Ports face a situation of high inventory in the short term and reduced imports and increased demand in the long term, with limited upside potential [5]. - It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with the MA2601 contract expected to trade between 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply-demand logic of methanol in China is expected to show regional trends this week, with a generally stronger north and weaker south. Inland areas may see higher prices due to increased olefin demand, but the inflow of port supplies may limit price increases in the sales areas. Ports face a situation of high inventory in the short term and reduced imports and increased demand in the long term, with limited upside potential [5]. - The basis of the 01 contract is -76, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 126.73 million tons, a cumulative increase of 12.27 million tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in the coastal areas increased by 8.79 million tons to 89.15 million tons [5]. - The 20-day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - The net long position of the main contract is decreasing [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish Factors: Some domestic methanol plants are shut down, Iranian methanol plants have reduced production, and there is an increase in demand from port olefin plants and pre - holiday restocking [6]. - Bearish Factors: Some previously shut - down domestic plants have resumed production, there is a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have declined significantly, coal - to - methanol plants have a certain profit margin and are actively selling, and some inland plants have accumulated inventory [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2300 yuan/ton. There have been slight fluctuations in domestic methanol prices in different regions this week, with a -0.13% change in Jiangsu, 0.00% in Shandong, 0.22% in Hebei, -0.35% in Inner Mongolia, and -0.22% in Fujian [5][9]. - Futures Prices: The closing price of the main futures contract is 2376 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [8]. - Basis: The basis of the 01 contract is -76, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - Inventory: As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 126.73 million tons, a cumulative increase of 12.27 million tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in the coastal areas increased by 8.79 million tons to 89.15 million tons [5]. - Operating Rates: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. Operating rates in different regions such as Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also declined [8]. - Profits: Coal - to - methanol profits decreased by 20 yuan/ton this week, natural gas - to - methanol profits remained at -40 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profits increased by 327 yuan/ton [14]. - External Market Prices: The CFR China price increased by 1.14% this week, and the CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 0.93%. The price difference between the two remained unchanged [23]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including those in the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions, with varying production capacities and maintenance durations [55]. - Foreign Plants: Some Iranian methanol plants are under maintenance or have reduced production, and plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions [56]. - Olefin Plants: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance, while others are operating stably or at partial loads [57].