《特殊商品》日报-20250918

Report 1: Glass and Soda Ash 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall sentiment of the commodity market has improved, and industrial products have stabilized and rebounded. Soda ash is driven by macro - sentiment, but its fundamental surplus problem persists. It is advisable to wait for a rebound and then go short. - Glass is sensitive to macro - atmosphere fluctuations, and the spot market has good transactions. However, the mid - term inventory in some areas is high, and the industry needs capacity clearance in the long - term. Short - term sentiment drives the market, and the follow - up should focus on policy implementation and peak - season demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Price and Spread: - Glass: Prices in East China and Central China increased, with the 2505 and 2509 contracts rising slightly. The 05 - contract basis decreased. - Soda ash: Most regional spot prices remained unchanged, the 2505 contract fell slightly, and the 2509 contract rose. The 05 - contract basis increased [1]. - Supply: - Soda ash: The operating rate and weekly output increased. - Glass: The float - glass daily melting volume and photovoltaic daily melting volume increased slightly [1]. - Inventory: - Glass factory inventory decreased, and soda ash factory inventory decreased while the delivery - warehouse inventory increased [1]. - Real Estate Data: - New construction area increased slightly, construction area decreased, completion area decreased slightly, and sales area decreased significantly [1]. Report 2: Rubber 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The supply of natural rubber is stable with overseas raw materials rising and inventory decreasing. Demand has some changes with different tire enterprises' policies. The price is expected to be affected by macro factors in the short - term, and attention should be paid to raw - material output in the peak - season and the impact of La Nina [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Spot Price and Basis: - The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber and Thai standard mixed rubber decreased, while the cup - rubber price increased. The basis of whole - latex rubber and non - standard price difference increased [2]. - Monthly Spread: - The 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads decreased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased [2]. - Fundamental Data: - Production: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China in July had different changes. - Tire: The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires increased, and domestic tire production increased in July, but tire exports decreased to zero. - Import: The import of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased in July [2]. - Inventory: - The bonded - area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, and the warehouse - entry and exit rates of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [2]. Report 3: Logs 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The log price is currently stable supported by cost. The arrival volume is low, and the inventory is low, providing strong price support. Demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. Attention should be paid to the improvement of shipment volume in the peak - season [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Futures and Spot Prices: - Log futures prices increased slightly, and most spot prices remained unchanged. The basis of some contracts decreased [4]. - Supply: - The port shipment volume and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [4]. - Inventory: - The inventory in major Chinese ports increased, with increases in Shandong and Jiangsu [4]. - Demand: - The daily average outbound volume increased slightly in China, Shandong, and Jiangsu [4]. Report 4: Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View In the short - term, the market is more focused on the expectation of policy implementation in September, and the price is likely to rise. In September, the supply reduction is not obvious, and there may be a slight inventory accumulation. The price is more affected by policy expectations, and the risk is high. Attention should be paid to the self - discipline meeting of polysilicon enterprises [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Spot Price and Basis: - The average price of N - type poly - feedstock increased slightly, and the N - type material basis increased significantly [5]. - Futures Price and Monthly Spread: - The main - contract price decreased, and the spreads between different contracts had different changes [5]. - Fundamental Data: - Weekly: Silicon wafer and polysilicon production increased. - Monthly: Polysilicon production, import, and export increased, and the net export decreased. Silicon wafer production, export, and net export increased, and the demand increased slightly [5]. - Inventory: - Polysilicon inventory increased, silicon wafer inventory decreased, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased [5]. Report 5: Industrial Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The cost of industrial silicon is rising, and there is news of capacity clearance. The supply - demand relationship was in tight balance in August, and the supply pressure may decrease in the long - term. It is recommended to go long at low prices, but pay attention to inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure. The main price range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Spot Price and Basis: - The price of East China's oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon increased, and the basis of some grades changed [6]. - Monthly Spread: - The spreads between different contracts had different changes [6]. - Fundamental Data: - Production: National and regional industrial silicon production increased, as well as organic silicon DMC and polysilicon production. The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. - Operating Rate: National and regional operating rates increased. - Export: Industrial silicon export volume increased [6]. - Inventory: - Inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and the social inventory increased slightly, and the contract and non - contract inventories also had small increases [6].