Report on the Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The demand side of steel remains weak in reality and expectation, but there is an expected contraction in the coal supply. The pricing is influenced by both weak steel demand and the expected contraction in coal supply. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the reference range for rebar being 3100 - 3350 yuan/ton and for hot-rolled coil being 3300 - 3500 yuan/ton. Hold long positions at low levels and monitor the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [1]. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while futures contract prices mostly increased. - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in different regions decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and futures contract prices mostly decreased [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 30 yuan/ton, and slab price remained unchanged. - Costs of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar and converter rebar increased, and profits of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions mostly increased [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. - The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decline of 0.4%. Rebar output decreased by 6.8 to 211.9, a decrease of 3.1%, and hot-rolled coil output increased by 10.9 to 325.1, a rise of 3.5% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, a rise of 0.9%. Rebar inventory increased by 13.9 to 653, a rise of 2.2%, and hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.0 to 373.3, a decline of 0.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.7 to 11.1, a decline of 6.0%. - The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 843.3, a rise of 1.9%. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 4.0 to 198.1, a decline of 2.0%, and hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 20.8 to 326.2, a rise of 6.8% [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. Unilaterally, it is considered to be in a slightly bullish trend, with the reference range being 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and engage in the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot-rolled coil [4]. Summary by Directory Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed slight changes, and the basis of the 01 contract for various powders decreased significantly. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 19.0, a decline of 2.6%, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 22.0, a rise of 2.3% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of different iron ore powders in Rizhao Port showed slight changes, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3, a decline of 3.5%, and the global shipment volume increased by 816.9 to 3573.1, a rise of 29.6%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3, a decline of 1.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 13.5 to 337.3, a rise of 4.2%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a decline of 1.4%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a decline of 2.9% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41, a decline of 0.3%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1, a rise of 0.6%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0, a decline of 4.8% [4]. Report on the Coke Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View After two rounds of coke price cuts, downstream users and traders are starting to replenish stocks in advance. The market generally expects limited downside, and there is a pre - National Day restocking demand. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips, with the reference range being 1650 - 1800, and engage in the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Summary by Directory Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts mostly decreased. - The basis of coke and coking coal futures contracts showed some changes [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased, with the raw coal output increasing by 43.8 to 817.3, a rise of 5.4%, and the clean coal output increasing by 23.3 to 442.5, a rise of 5.6% [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.14%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased, indicating an increase in coke demand [6]. Inventory Changes - Coke total inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, a rise of 1.2%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants and steel mills increased slightly, while the port inventory decreased. - Coking coal inventory in different sectors showed different changes, with the overall inventory at a medium level and slightly decreasing [6].
《黑色》日报-20250918
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-18 02:51