《农产品》日报-20250918

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: With the slight increase in export data from September 1 - 15 announced by shipping agency ITS, and due to the co - existence of long and short factors in fundamentals, the crude palm oil futures are expected to maintain a strong consolidation around 4500 ringgit. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil [1]. - Soybean oil: The NOPA report shows that the soybean oil inventory of member enterprises on August 31 decreased by 9.7% month - on - month, reaching an 8 - month low, which supports the US soybean oil supply. In the domestic market, due to sufficient soybean supply, factories maintain high operating rates. Last week, the operating rate rose to around 65%, increasing soybean oil production and inventory. Although the consumption during the stocking period this year is higher than the off - season, it is lower year - on - year. The speculation of limited soybean imports in the fourth quarter may lead to a possible increase in basis quotes [1]. Corn - In the supply side, the remaining grain in the Northeast is insufficient, but the new season's listing is slow, and the overall arrival volume is average, with some prices rising. In the North China region, the new season's corn is gradually listed, and the number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants is large, with prices running weakly and having room to fall as more new grain is listed. In the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises are mainly replenishing their inventories, with no obvious highlights. In the short - term, the market supply and demand are loose, the futures price fluctuates weakly, but it has strong support around 2150. In the medium - term, it will remain weak, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and opening price [2]. Sugar - The price of raw sugar is expected to bottom - out and rebound, with limited momentum to break below 15 cents per pound in the short - term. However, considering the oversupply of raw sugar, it is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, with a reference range of 15 - 17 cents per pound. The import volume of sugar has increased, and processing sugar factories are fully operational. The actual transaction price of processed sugar has fallen below 6000, occupying the sales area market. The external transportation in Guangxi is blocked, and the domestic sales data in August is poor. As of the end of August, the national industrial inventory is 116.23 million tons, an increase of 6 million tons year - on - year, with still existing spot pressure. The futures price is expected to stabilize around 5500 in the short - term due to the rebound of raw sugar, but the overall rebound space is limited, and a high - selling strategy is recommended in the later stage [6][7]. Cotton - In the supply side, machine - picked seed cotton may gradually start being purchased this week, and attention should be paid to the purchase price. In the demand side, the inventory of downstream finished products is still decreasing, but the shipment has slowed down slightly, and the downstream has insufficient confidence in the traditional peak season, but the rigid demand may still provide support. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and it will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long - term [8]. Meal - According to the USDA September supply - demand report, the production increased month - on - month compared with last month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased slightly. The good - quality rate of US soybeans remains high, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand for US soybeans continues. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut meets market expectations, and the futures price lacks positive support, putting pressure on US soybeans. The high premium of Brazilian soybeans supports the domestic cost. In the domestic market, the concern about the supply in the fourth quarter is gradually alleviated, the spot market is loose, oil mills' soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate, and terminal users lack enthusiasm for stocking. The supply of soybeans in January - February next year is not loose, and the uncertainty mainly lies in the Sino - US negotiations. Attention should be paid to the support of the 01 contract around 3000 [10]. Pork - The increase in slaughter by farmers has continuously realized the spot pressure. Currently, the demand is slowly recovering, but there is still a large uncertainty whether the demand can smoothly absorb the clearly recovering supply. The weight of retail farmers' pigs remains high, and there may be continuous slaughter pressure before the Double Festival. The Ministry of Agriculture's meeting on September 16 revealed the intention to further strengthen production capacity regulation, and it is expected that the pressure on farmers to reduce production will increase, with the impact on slaughter mainly reflected after mid - next year. The spot price lacks support, and the futures price should be carefully speculated. The near - month contracts will maintain a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [12][13]. Eggs - Recently, the increase in procurement by traders may drive up the egg price, and it is expected to rise to the annual high. However, the high inventory and the outflow of cold - stored eggs from warehouses may limit the increase. After traders finish replenishing their stocks in the second half of next week, the demand may weaken, and there is a risk of a slight decline in egg prices in some areas [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - Price Changes: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 30 to 8690, with a 0.35% increase; the futures price of Y2601 decreased by 52 to 8366, a 0.62% decrease; the basis of Y2601 increased by 82 to 324, a 33.88% increase [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 50 to 9450, a 0.53% increase; the futures price of P2601 decreased by 28 to 9424, a 0.61% decrease; the basis of P2601 increased by 108 to 26, a 131.71% increase [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 50 to 10110, a 0.50% increase; the futures price of O1601 decreased by 54 to 9999, a 0.54% decrease; the basis of O1601 increased by 104 to 111, a 1485.71% increase [1]. - Spread Changes: - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased by 28 to 268, a 9.46% decrease; the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil decreased by 18 to 212, a 7.83% decrease; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 1 to 466, a 0.21% decrease [1]. - The spot spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 20 to - 760, a 2.70% decrease; the 2601 spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 6 to - 1058, a 0.56% increase [1]. - The spot spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased by 20 to 1420, a 1.43% increase; the 2601 spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 2 to 1633, a 0.12% decrease [1]. Corn - Price Changes: - The FOB price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port decreased by 5 to 2161, a 0.23% decrease; the basis decreased by 15 to 129, a 10.42% decrease; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 3 to - 5, a 150.00% decrease [2]. - The spot price of corn starch 2511 increased by 10 to 2453, a 0.41% increase; the basis decreased by 10 to 107, an 8.55% decrease; the 11 - 3 spread remained unchanged at - 32 [2]. - Supply and Demand: In the Northeast, the remaining grain is insufficient, and the new season's listing is slow. In North China, the new season's corn is gradually listed, and the number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants is large. Deep - processing and feed enterprises are mainly replenishing their inventories [2]. Sugar - Futures Market: The futures price of sugar 2601 decreased by 18 to 5529, a 0.32% decrease; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4 to 19, a 17.39% decrease; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 280 to 10988, a 2.48% decrease [6]. - Spot Market: The national average price decreased by 20 to 5870, a 0.34% decrease; the Nanning basis decreased by 6 to 360, a 1.64% decrease; the import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) decreased by 28 to 4433, a 0.63% decrease [6]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 119.89 to 1116.21, a 12.03% increase; the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 114 to 1000, a 12.87% increase; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 28.36 to 646.50, a 4.59% increase [6]. Cotton - Futures Market: The futures price of cotton 2605 decreased by 10 to 13850, a 0.07% decrease; the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 2 to - 40, a 14.29% decrease; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 144 to 4615, a 3.03% decrease [8]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 12 to 15226, a 0.08% increase; the 3128B - 01 contract spread increased by 22 to 1376, a 1.62% increase [8]. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory decreased by 33.85 to 148.17, an 18.6% decrease; the industrial inventory decreased by 3.19 to 89.23, a 3.5% decrease; the cotton outbound shipment volume increased by 9.86 to 53.46, a 22.6% increase [8]. Meal - Price Changes: - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 to 2980, a 1.65% decrease; the futures price of M2601 decreased by 30 to 3002, a 1.28% decrease; the basis of M2601 decreased by 11 to - 22, a 100.00% decrease [10]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 50 to 2570, a 1.91% decrease; the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 58 to 2460, a 2.30% decrease; the basis of RM2601 increased by 8 to 110, a 7.84% increase [10]. - Spread Changes: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal decreased by 18 to 221, a 7.53% decrease; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 22 to 99, an 18.18% decrease; the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 0.058 to 2.92, a 2.03% increase [10]. Pork - Futures Market: The futures price of live hogs 2511 decreased by 160 to 13000, a 1.22% decrease; the 11 - 1 spread increased by 10 to - 510, a 1.92% increase; the number of open positions increased by 9219 to 94076, a 10.86% increase [12]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Henan decreased by 250 to 12950; the daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 26 to 148608, a 0.40% decrease; the weekly white - striped pork price decreased by 0.1 to 19.97, a 0.65% decrease [12]. Eggs - Futures Market: The futures price of egg 11 contract increased by 3 to 3116, a 0.10% increase; the 11 - 10 spread increased by 34 to 57, a 147.83% increase; the basis increased by 6 to 651, a 0.89% increase [17]. - Spot Market: The egg - laying chicken chick price decreased by 0.4 to 2.60, a 13.33% decrease; the egg - to - feed ratio increased by 0.07 to 2.50, a 2.88% increase; the breeding profit increased by 4.71 to - 17.89, a 20.84% increase [17].