广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250918

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has improved, with industrial products stabilizing and rebounding. Soda ash's fundamentals are weak, but it has been boosted by macro - sentiment. However, the supply - demand pattern remains bearish, and short - selling opportunities can be sought after rebounds [1]. - Glass is sensitive to macro - atmosphere fluctuations, and the spot market has seen good transactions. But mid - stream inventory in some areas is high. In the long - term, the industry needs capacity clearance, and short - term sentiment drives the market, with attention on policy implementation and downstream stocking [1]. Rubber - The supply side of natural rubber shows stable fundamentals with overseas raw materials stopping decline and inventory decreasing. The demand side has mixed situations among tire enterprises. The price is expected to be affected by macro factors in the short - term, and attention should be paid to raw material output in the main production areas [2]. Logs - Log futures closed up yesterday. The spot price of the main delivery product was unchanged. Inventory increased, demand slightly rose, and supply decreased. Log prices are currently stable with cost support, and a long - position strategy is recommended with attention on post - season sales [4]. Polysilicon - In the short - term, the market is trading on the expectation of September policy implementation, and the market is prone to rise and hard to fall. In September, the supply reduction is not obvious, and there may be a slight inventory build - up. The price is more influenced by policy expectations, and caution is advised [5]. Industrial Silicon - The cost of industrial silicon is rising, and there are signs of capacity clearance. The supply - demand was in tight balance in August, and a long - position strategy is recommended, but attention should be paid to inventory and warehouse receipt pressure [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass: Prices in different regions had varying changes, with the 2505 and 2509 contracts slightly rising, and the 05 - contract basis slightly falling [1]. - Soda ash: Most regional prices were unchanged, the 2505 contract slightly fell, the 2509 contract slightly rose, and the 05 - contract basis slightly rose [1]. Supply - Soda ash: The operating rate and weekly output increased, with a 1.24% increase in the operating rate and a 1.25% increase in weekly output [1]. - Glass: The float glass daily melting volume and photovoltaic daily melting volume had small changes, with a 0.38% increase in float glass daily melting volume [1]. Inventory - Glass: Factory inventory decreased by 2.33% [1]. - Soda ash: Factory inventory decreased by 1.35%, and delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2.70% [1]. Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber and Thai standard mixed rubber decreased, while the cup - lump price increased [2]. Fundamental Data - The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China in July had different changes. Tire production increased, but exports decreased. The import of natural rubber increased [2]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory and Shanghai Futures Exchange factory - warehouse inventory decreased [2]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices slightly rose, and the spot prices of main delivery products were unchanged [4]. Supply - Port shipments and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [4]. Inventory and Demand - National inventory increased, and the daily出库量 slightly rose [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type polysilicon slightly increased, and the N - type material basis increased [5]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads - The main contract price slightly decreased, and inter - month spreads had different changes [5]. Fundamental Data - Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production increased, and monthly import and export data also changed [5]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased, and silicon wafer inventory decreased [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main - Contract Basis - The price of East - China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon slightly increased, and the basis of different types of industrial silicon had different changes [6]. Inter - month Spreads - Inter - month spreads had different changes [6]. Fundamental Data - National and regional industrial silicon production and operating rates increased, and the production of related downstream products also changed [6]. Inventory Changes - Regional and social inventories had small increases [6].