2025年9月美联储议息会议点评：规则之外，预期之内

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% on September 18, 2025[1] - Despite inflation not returning to the 2% target, the rate cut was deemed necessary due to slowing economic growth and a weakening labor market[2] - The labor market showed signs of fatigue, with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs added over the past 12 months, resulting in an average monthly addition of only 70,000 jobs[2] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, while core CPI increased by 3.1%[2] - The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, indicating a significant weakening in the labor market[2] - Current inflationary pressures are primarily attributed to supply-side shocks from tariffs rather than overheating demand[2] Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate cuts, with a total of 75 basis points anticipated by the end of 2025[1][7] - The focus of monetary policy may shift further towards the labor market, especially in light of expanding fiscal deficits and increased government intervention[7] - A cautious approach is necessary to avoid excessive loosening that could undermine the Fed's credibility and reignite inflation risks[7]