瑞达期货棕榈油产业日报-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures price declined on Wednesday due to the unclear US biofuel proposal policy, which led to a significant drop in the US soybean oil futures price and dragged down the domestic oil market. In the short term, with the interweaving of long and short factors, the market shows a volatile trend. The heavy rain in Sabah, Malaysia, has affected at least 7 counties, and as one of the main palm oil producing areas, the market is worried about its impact on palm picking and transportation. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 2.5% compared with the same period in August [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract was 9304 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 196 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract was 423179 hands, a decrease of 12824 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 1570 hands, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 9011 hands, a decrease of 16510 hands; the settlement price of BMD crude palm oil was 4414 Malaysian ringgit/ton, an increase of 31 ringgit; the settlement price of NYMEX light crude oil was 64.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.47 dollars [2] Spot Price - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan; in Zhangjiagang was 9380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan; in Tianjin was 9440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars; the CNF price was 1148 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars. The basis of the palm oil main contract was - 34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly production of Malaysian palm oil was 1685962 tons, an increase of 298531 tons; the export volume was 1102266 tons, an increase of 96719 tons; the ending inventory was 1865537 tons, an increase of 302720 tons. The monthly production of Indonesian palm oil was 528.9 million tons, an increase of 72.9 million tons; the export volume was 360.6 million tons, an increase of 94.6 million tons; the inventory was 253 million tons, a decrease of 39 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of palm oil (customs caliber) was 16 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons. The national port inventory of soybean oil was 120.3 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons; the weekly port inventory of rapeseed oil was 60.77 million tons, a decrease of 2.13 million tons. The import cost of Malaysian palm oil was 9746.97 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.61 yuan. The ex - factory price of first - grade bulk soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, was 8480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian, was 10240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. The FOB price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil was 11.36 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 28.22 dollars; the price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 790 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 970 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The annual food consumption of palm oil in Malaysia was 870 thousand tons, an increase of 5 thousand tons; the industrial consumption was 3100 thousand tons, unchanged. In Indonesia, the food consumption was 7400 thousand tons, an increase of 200 thousand tons; the industrial consumption was 13750 thousand tons, an increase of 500 thousand tons. In China, the food consumption was 3600 thousand tons, a decrease of 100 thousand tons; the industrial consumption was 2300 thousand tons, unchanged [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for palm oil was 16.64%, a decrease of 0.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.63%, a decrease of 0.29%. The 20 - day historical volatility was 15.24%, an increase of 0.2%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 15.35%, an increase of 0.14% [2] Industry News - The Sabah state government in Malaysia canceled the state - level Malaysia Day celebration due to heavy rain and floods in at least 7 counties. The SPPOMA data showed that from September 1 - 15, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.05% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield decreased by 6.94%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21% [2]