瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250918

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Internationally, the 10 - month white sugar delivery volume was 260,750 tons, with 200,000 tons from the UAE, 36,950 tons from India, and 5,000 tons from China. The most active 3 - month raw sugar futures on ICE fell 0.29 cents, or 1.75%, to settle at 15.90 cents per pound. Domestically, the sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained relatively low. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in the country were 9.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 113,880 tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, a year - on - year acceleration of 0.65 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 116,230 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6,010 tons. Currently, the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is basically over, and northern sugar mills are about to start production. There is no obvious positive driving force in the short term, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5,474 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan; the main contract position was 432,454 lots, an increase of 44,260 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10,629 sheets, a decrease of 359 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 64,401 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0 sheets; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,433 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,392 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,576 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,630 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Nanning, it was 5,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; in Liuzhou, it was 5,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 304,830 tons, a decrease of 81,430 tons; the national sugar sales rate was 89.59%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 3.744 million tons, an increase of 150,300 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,381 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 143 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 197 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.7966 million tons, a decrease of 46,200 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.66%, a decrease of 1.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 8.65%, a decrease of 1.16 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.61%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 6.29%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association Unica, in the second half of August 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.06 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 10.686%; the sugar production was 3.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21%. As of September 1, 2025/26, the cumulative sugarcane crushing in the central - southern region was 40.3942 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%, the cumulative sugar production was 2.6758 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%, and the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 52.76%, compared with 49.09% in the same period last year [2].