瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250918

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Report Core View - On Thursday, the RB2601 contract increased in position and corrected. The macro - aspect shows that the deputy director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council stated that efforts will be made to promote strategic and professional restructuring and integration of state - owned enterprises. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to decline with a capacity utilization rate of 45.26%. Terminal demand recovered, inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rise. Overall, after the Fed's interest rate cut, the market's bullish sentiment weakened, and some mainstream positions took profit, so the short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis, and the red column turns green. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term trading within a range, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the position volume was 1,999,684 lots, up 36,313 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 224,471 lots, up 16,787 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 57 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 255,222 tons, down 14,137 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 207 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) was 3,374 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 143 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. The spot spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,040 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.4947 million tons, up 0.2415 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 437,600 tons, up 31,000 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3361 million tons, up 0.1007 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.85%, up 3.47 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.20%, up 4.43 percentage points. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.2173 million tons, down 72,200 tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.0645 million tons, down 54,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 45.26%, down 1.20 percentage points. The mill inventory of sample steel mills was 1.6507 million tons, down 15,600 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.8521 million tons, down 20,200 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.05, down 0.28. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 0.50%, down 1.10 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.90%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 2.00%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.43109 billion square meters, down 43.78 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 398.01 million square meters, down 45.95 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel on September 18, the actual weekly output of rebar was 2.0645 million tons, down 54,800 tons; mill inventory was 1.6507 million tons, down 15,600 tons; social inventory was 4.8521 million tons, down 20,200 tons; total inventory was 6.5028 million tons, down 35,800 tons; apparent demand was 2.1003 million tons, up 119,600 tons. In August 2025, China's excavator output was 27,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to August 2025, the output was 245,556 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% [2]