沪铜产业日报-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper price is supported by the cost of the concentrate due to the negative TC index of copper ore and the firm offer of concentrate. Supply is constrained by the tight supply of scrap copper and copper concentrate, and macro - factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut keep the copper price in a high - level range. However, the strong copper price suppresses downstream purchasing sentiment, resulting in a light trading volume in the spot market. The peak season has not yet boosted demand, and consumption recovery is slow. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.38, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0514, indicating a bullish sentiment and a slight increase in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows both lines below the 0 - axis with an expanding green bar. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 79,620 yuan/ton, down 940 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,966.50 dollars/ton, down 29.50 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 70 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 127,860 lots, down 19,604 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 16,293 lots, down 4,846 lots. LME copper inventory was 150,950 tons, down 1,675 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 94,054 tons, up 12,203 tons. The warehouse receipt of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 33,291 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 79,990 yuan/ton, down 610 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 80,065 yuan/ton, down 555 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 56 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 53.50 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 370 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 71.13 dollars/ton, down 11.87 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 41.30 dollars/kiloton, down 0.45 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 70,910 yuan/metal ton, down 620 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 71,610 yuan/metal ton, down 620 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,790 yuan/ton, down 580 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 590 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,450 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.497 billion yuan, up 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,030.919 billion yuan, up 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250,287.10 thousand pieces, down 438,933.60 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.53%, up 1.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.30%, up 0.51 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 14.97%, up 0.0090 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.38, up 0.0514 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the FOMC statement, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October was over 90%. China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, and introduce a series of policy documents. During the consumption month, more than 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities will be carried out, and more than 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies will be issued. In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 27.4% and 26.8% [2].