瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. The supply in Yunnan is gradually increasing, and the raw material prices have been slightly adjusted downwards due to the decline in futures and spot prices. In Hainan, the rainy weather has increased, affecting the tapping operations, and the local raw material supply has tightened. The processing plants' enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials is cautious, and the raw material prices have also been adjusted downwards. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, with the decline rate slightly narrowing compared to the previous period. The destocking of bonded warehouses has exceeded expectations, while the general trade warehouses have seen a slight accumulation of inventory. The downstream mainly replenishes standard rubber, driving up the提货 volume of bonded warehouses. With the downstream gradually picking up goods and transporting them to the factory, the general trade inventory is expected to decline. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has slightly increased this week. Most enterprises maintain their current production schedules to stock up for the long - holiday period and make up for the previous order backlog. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15300 - 15750 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15570 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12300 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 15 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber is 0 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 159271 lots, up 12463 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 69153 lots, up 3914 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 30609 lots, down 1558 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 13580 lots, down 893 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 153570 tons, up 1390 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 44755 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14800 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15150 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1860 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1860 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 770 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 880 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13279 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 979 yuan/ton, up 251 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 60.63 Thai baht/kg, down 0.05 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 57.8 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 56.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 51.62 Thai baht/kg, up 0.17 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 158.6 US dollars/ton, down 52.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17 US dollars/ton, down 31.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.19 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 25.95 million tons, down 2.13 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 65.59%, up 5.81 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 73.46%, up 5.99 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 38.83 days, down 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.94 days, up 0.09 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.82%, up 0.68 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.72%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.29%, down 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.7%, down 0.08 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (September 14 - 20, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared to the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly concentrated in southern Thailand and south - western Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium or low level, which has an increased impact on tapping operations. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly distributed in central and southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a reduced impact on tapping operations. As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 586,600 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons or 0.95% compared to the previous period. The bonded area inventory is 66,200 tons, a decrease of 8.32%; the general trade inventory is 520,400 tons, an increase of 0.07%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses has decreased by 3.44 percentage points, and the outbound rate has increased by 1.96 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses has increased by 0.27 percentage points, and the outbound rate has decreased by 1.65 percentage points. As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2] 3.7 Suggested Attention - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased slightly this week. Most enterprises maintain their current production schedules to stock up for the long - holiday period and make up for the previous order backlog. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15300 - 15750 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12600 in the short term [2]