原油成品油早报-20250918

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices closed higher, and the absolute price volatility increased due to geopolitical news. The global oil market is in a state of inventory accumulation, with the U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventory increasing by 3.93 million barrels, and gasoline and diesel inventories also increasing. The refining profit of global refineries has declined. Under the baseline scenario, the crude oil balance sheet will have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and the expected surplus in 2026 is 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day. It is estimated that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous levels, and the fundamental situation is turning into the off - season, with the medium - term surplus pattern remaining unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia and whether it will cause disruptions to Russian supply, as well as the impact of geopolitics and sanctions on the reduction of supply from Iran and Russia [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Due to the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on key facilities in Russia, the weekly crude oil exports from Russia dropped significantly. As of the week of September 14, the daily average of Russia's seaborne crude oil exports was about 3.18 million barrels, a decrease of 934,000 barrels from the previous week, the largest single - week decline since July last year. However, the less - volatile four - week average export volume increased slightly, reaching 3.46 million barrels per day as of the week of September 14, up from 3.42 million barrels per day in the week of September 7 [3] - The U.S. Secretary of State Rubio announced that the U.S. imposed sanctions on four armed groups allied with Iran [3] - The Slovakian Minister of Economy, Denisa Sakova, stated that Slovakia, as an EU member, will resist Trump's demand to cut Russian oil and gas imports unless the country has sufficient alternative energy supplies. She also mentioned that sufficient infrastructure must be built to support alternative energy transportation routes. She had made Slovakia's position clear during a meeting with the U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Vienna this week, and the U.S. official expressed understanding and admitted that the U.S. needs to increase investment in European energy projects [4] 2. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of September 12, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day [4] - In the week of September 12, U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day [4] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 2.19% [5] - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.69% [5] - In the week of September 12, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.12% [5] - In the week of September 12, U.S. commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.692 million barrels per day, a decrease of 579,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5] - From September 5 to September 11, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Both domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventories increased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5] 3. Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices closed higher, and the absolute price volatility increased due to geopolitical news. The global oil market is in a state of inventory accumulation, with the U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventory increasing by 3.93 million barrels, and gasoline and diesel inventories also increasing. The refining profit of global refineries has declined. Under the baseline scenario, the crude oil balance sheet will have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and the expected surplus in 2026 is 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day. It is estimated that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous levels, and the fundamental situation is turning into the off - season, with the medium - term surplus pattern remaining unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia and whether it will cause disruptions to Russian supply, as well as the impact of geopolitics and sanctions on the reduction of supply from Iran and Russia [6]