永安期货有色早报-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to be prone to rising and hard to fall in the third and fourth quarters of this year. If short - term bullish factors are realized and the price corrects, mid - term long positions can be considered below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1]. - For aluminum, short - term fundamentals are acceptable. In a low - inventory situation, hold positions on dips and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - Zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern that may further differentiate. Short - term single - side positions can be used as a short - side allocation, and internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to hold [2]. - Nickel has a weak short - term fundamental situation, and geopolitical risks have been alleviated to some extent. Continuous attention should be paid to the situation of the Indonesian forestry department taking over part of the world's largest nickel mine [3][4]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. The short - term macro - aspect follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to the situation of the Indonesian forestry department taking over part of the world's largest nickel mine [6]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. - Tin's short - term domestic fundamentals maintain a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term observation is recommended, and long positions can be held near the cost line in the medium - long term [9]. - Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state in September and October. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom anchored by seasonal marginal costs [12]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of a seasonal peak season, the monthly balance turns to continuous de - stocking after CATL's production reduction, but the de - stocking amplitude is small. Before the supply - side disturbance is realized, the price has strong downward support in the peak season [14]. Summary by Metal Types Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The fundamentals remained resilient. Domestic social inventories did not accumulate despite increased imported copper arrivals, and downstream production was in the stage of consuming finished - product inventories. The domestic spot premium declined slightly, and the external - internal positive arbitrage had room. Macro - economically, copper benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - loosening [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to July. Downstream construction improved, but overseas demand declined significantly. Inventories are expected to decline in September [1]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased. Smelting production decreased slightly in September due to concentrated maintenance. Overseas mine supply increased more than expected. Domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and overseas European demand was average. The domestic social inventory continued to rise, and the overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, the demand was weak overall, and the premium was stable recently. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and overseas warehouse receipts increased. Geopolitical risks in Indonesia have been alleviated, and attention should be paid to the situation of the Indonesian forestry department taking over part of the world's largest nickel mine [3][4]. Stainless Steel - Supply is expected to gradually resume as northern steel mills are affected by the military parade. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs include stable ferronickel prices and slightly rising ferrochrome prices. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6]. Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. Supply was expected to be tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons. Demand improved slightly, but inventories were at a high level. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. The supply of raw materials was tight in the short term, and it is expected to gradually increase after October. The demand for solder was limited, and the domestic inventory fluctuated. The LME inventory rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to observe in the short term and hold long positions near the cost line in the medium - long term [9]. Industrial Silicon - This week, leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production. Sichuan and Yunnan had stable production. In September and October, supply and demand were in a tight - balance state. In the medium - long term, the industrial silicon capacity was still in significant excess, and prices were expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [12]. Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's production resumption, the futures market declined significantly in the middle of the week. The contradiction lies in the background of an uncompleted large - scale capacity expansion cycle and a still - surplus static supply - demand pattern, with resource - side compliance disturbances. In the peak season, the monthly balance turns to de - stocking after CATL's production reduction, but the de - stocking amplitude is small [14].